Analysts consider that President Daniel Noboa’s re-election hopes are what motivated the arrest of an Ecuadorian politician sheltered in the Mexican Embassy.
Ecuador’s decision to send police officers to the Mexican Embassy to arrest a politician who had taken refuge there fueled tensions between two countries that were already at odds, but may provide a political boost for the Ecuadorian president.
President Daniel Noboa has faced declining approval ratings amid a surge in violence weeks before a referendum that could affect his re-election prospects next year. The dispute with Mexico, which suspended diplomatic relations, may be just what he needed.
The detained politician, Jorge Glas, former vice president of Ecuador, had been sentenced to prison for corruption and had been living in the Mexican embassy in Quito since December. On Friday, Mexico granted him asylum and Ecuadorian police sprang into action.
Noboa’s office said the arrest had been carried out because Mexico had abused the immunities and privileges granted to the diplomatic mission, but the message it sent was also in line with Noboa’s heavy-handed approach to dealing with the violence and corruption in Ecuador.
The 36-year-old center-right leader came to power in November after President Guillermo Lasso, who was facing impeachment over allegations of embezzlement, called early elections. Noboa will hold the position until May 2025, the date on which Lasso’s term ends.
Noboa’s ability to demonstrate that he can restore law and order in this nation of nearly 18 million people could prove decisive in his re-election, and that means taking on the country’s gangs as well as the corruption within the government that has allowed the existence of criminal groups, according to analysts.
Many experts say those political aspirations seem to explain the arrest at the embassy, an indication that the president is strict about impunity.
“He did this to change all these negative conversation topics that were affecting him and try to have a conversation in his favor,” said an Ecuadorian political analyst, Agustín Burbano de Lara.
Glas held several ministerial positions during the presidency of the leftist Rafael Correa, among which that of vice president stands out. In 2017, he was forced from office and sentenced to six years in prison for accepting bribes. Another bribery conviction in 2020 implicated him and Correa, and both received eight-year sentences.
Released in 2022, Glas ended up asking for asylum in Mexico, a measure that strained relations between Ecuador and Mexico. Ecuador’s Foreign Ministry said in March that it had requested permission from Mexico to detain Glas.
Although Noboa is very popular, polls show his approval rating has fallen 11 points in recent months, from 85 percent to 74 percent, amid growing violence in Ecuador.
After the coastal city of Guayaquil was overrun by gang violence in January, Noboa declared an internal conflict, an extraordinary measure taken when the state is attacked by an armed group. He deployed the country’s military, allowing soldiers to patrol the streets and prisons to confront growing violence from gangs linked to drug trafficking.
The aggressive response initially reduced violence and brought a precarious sense of security to places like Guayaquil, but the stability did not last. During the Easter holidays, 137 murders occurred in Ecuador, and kidnappings and extortions have worsened.
In two weeks, Ecuadorians will vote in a referendum to allow the government to increase security measures by toughening prison sentences for some crimes and enshrining in law the increased military presence.
Experts say it is too early to say whether Glas’ arrest will benefit Noboa at the polls, but several Ecuadorians said Sunday they supported the move.
“Mexico has treated Ecuadorians like fools, giving asylum to all these sentenced people,” said Danilo Álvarez, a 41-year-old salesman from Guayaquil, one of the most violent cities in the country.
Ecuador itself once granted a much-discussed asylum in one of its embassies. In 2012, when Correa was president, he hosted WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange in his embassy in London for seven years.
Álvarez said thieves broke into his house a few years ago, tied his hands and feet and pointed a gun at his head. It was months before he could sleep well again, he said.
However, not all citizens agreed with the arrest.
“This was an act of total disrespect for international law,” said Delfa Mantilla, a 62-year-old retired teacher. “It seems that it was something that President Noboa did as a result of his rich kid ego, without empathy.”
Some worried about the effects the diplomatic dispute could have on ordinary people. Tens of thousands of Ecuadorians immigrate through Mexico to the United States each year, and the two countries have faced a rise in transnational crime, with many Mexican cartels operating from Ecuador.
“Part of me thinks it’s good, because Glas should go to prison,” said Mario Zalamar, a 34-year-old commercial engineer. But, he added, “there are thousands of Ecuadorians right now traveling through Mexico on foot to migrate to the United States and we don’t know how much this is going to affect them.”
Although many Ecuadorians support the detention at the embassy, Noboa has likely deepened a diplomatic rift that could weaken its relations with other countries in the region.
Honduras, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina have joined Mexico in criticizing the detention. And the Nicaraguan government announced it was suspending diplomatic relations with Ecuador, calling the arrest “neo-fascist political barbarism” in a statement shared by state media.
Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US Department, stated: “The United States condemns any violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and takes seriously the obligation of host countries under international law to respect the inviolability of diplomatic missions.”
Miller called on both countries to resolve their differences.
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