We told you about it a few days ago: Dmitry Rogozin, the boss of Roscosmos, reacted by threats on Twitter to the implementation of heavy sanctions against Russia. The Russians are an integral part of the ISS – and their equipment is currently the only one capable of periodically raising the station’s orbit to prevent it from crashing somewhere on Earth. In particular, one of Dmitry Rogozin’s messages read that the ISS “does not fly over Russia, therefore all risk rests with you”.
The prospect of a “crash” of the station in the event of the withdrawal of the Russians is in no way virtual. Northrop Grumman, one of NASA’s suppliers, says it could adapt its refueling capsules. But the operation seems impossible to carry out in an emergency. For the time being, Russian scientists aboard the ISS continue to collaborate as if nothing had happened with their international counterparts. Space is currently one of the few areas where the break between Russia and the West is not yet complete.
Why Russia has no interest in withdrawing from the ISS
Even if Roscosmos has also ended its commercial programs with countries supporting Russian sanctions, in particular the United Kingdom which was to put into orbit satellites of the OneWeb constellation via a Soyuz rocket. The following 36 launches were all canceled by the agency. Still, experts and observers point out that Russia is not in as strong a position on the subject as Dmitry Rogozin suggests. According to available data, the ISS is seen to fly over many parts of Russia, including near Ukraine, Khazakstan, Mongolia, China and North Korea.
As our colleagues from The Sun mischievously point out “some suspect Rogozin actually meant that the ISS doesn’t fly over parts of Russia that matter to Putin, including the Kremlin which is far out of the orbit’s path”. And a twittos to add: “the ISS doesn’t fly over parts of Russia that matter to the oligarchs”. But beyond the image, the situation threatens much more than the collaboration between Russia and its partners.
Indeed, Roscosmos derives a large part of its resources from its contracts and other international launches. Ultimately, by threatening to withdraw from the station, Russia is actually encouraging its counterparts to launch and accelerate the operations necessary to prepare for the departure from Russia. Moreover, as it stands, the country seems to be automatically excluded from new international collaborations related to space in the near future. Knowing that the United States wishes, via the Artemis program, to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon.
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The setback could therefore be extremely expensive for Russian space ambitions, especially since the country’s economy is beginning to be very hard hit by the coordinated sanctions of the West.