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Demands European Union Member states possess reserves of Gas At least 80 percent of its storage capacity by November 1st.
In his statement to the site "Sky News Arabia" The energy expert, Philip Charles, considered that "This stock will not be enough to cover next winter"adding that "It will cover Europe’s needs for two or three months at the latest".
Charles explained: "European countries will not risk waiting for this stockpile to run out, but will look for new and daily supplies that will be protected by a bigger crisis. Gas is an important source of production electricity In Europe, 20 percent of European electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants. The more rare it becomes, the higher its price. This has direct consequences for the price of electricity".
He continued: "It should be noted that the imported gas is not used mainly for the production of electricity in Europe, because most of it is used for heating, by 50 percent, and 30 percent by industry, and then 20 percent for electricity generation.".
And if The war in Ukraine It has exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe, with the interruption of Russian gas supplies, it did not create this situation.
Before the war, energy prices were already structurally high due to the energy transition and the pivotal role of gas, and the rise dollar.
This is what Charles confirms by saying: "This crisis was expected, but it was not dealt with well in advance by politicians, and the Ukrainian crisis made matters worse.".
Prosthetic solutions in the face of the storm
To avoid possible gas shortages and power outages, European countries are taking several basic measures. The member states of the Union have committed to reducing their gas consumption by at least 15 percent between August 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023.
In Germany and France, the heating temperature of departments will not exceed 19 degrees Celsius, and bright advertisements will soon be banned between one and six in the morning in France in most public places.
In Spain, it is limited air conditioner At 27 degrees in shops, cinemas, theaters, airports and stations.
Also, countries that have preferred renewable energies as a primary option for energy generation are seeking to double their number and expand their areas of use.
Energy policy expert Fabian Bogli considers these solutions "remain insufficient"explaining that "Reliance on renewable energies leads to the great need for excavations. As European countries get rid of Nuclear reactors Nord Stream 1 will gradually stop, the crisis will not be resolved".
And Bogli indicated that "The only solution for Europe is to stop investing in renewable energies and take care of nuclear reactors and build new ones alongside the old ones".
He added: "Thanks to nuclear power, the price in France in 2020 was 32.2 euros per megawatt-hour, and with the gas crisis that began in 2021 due to lower wind turbine production in Europe, the spot price reached 109 euros per megawatt-hour on average throughout the year The futures market has set a spot price of 1,000 euros per megawatt-hour, which will expire in 2023".
He pointed out that "The electricity market in Europe is currently in a frenzy, partly due to the strong and growing demand for natural gas, especially by countries that have invested heavily in wind turbines, and because of the move away from nuclear energy. countries like Germany".
What worries Bogli is that "In this period of electricity shortage, countries in deficit will have to import from neighboring countries, a phenomenon that increases electricity price inflation. So in the winter, if nothing is done to restart the nuclear power plants, we will see a new rise in spot prices which will in turn affect the bills of companies and households.".
As for Charles, he explained that in the event of a severe shortage of energy resources Thanks to the coming winter, this will cause a major economic crisis in Europe, and the industry will be most affected.
According to his speech, the countries that demand to reduce energy consumption by 10 to 20 percent, their demand is not in line with their demand with economic growth, indicating by saying: "In 2020, with the spread of the Corona epidemic, energy consumption in France decreased by 20 percent, but in return, an economic recession was recorded by 6 percent. This is what may happen next year with better solutions winter".
On the other hand, the economist "Oxford Economics" For World Economic Forecasting and Econometric Analysis, Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, in connection with the site "Sky News Arabia" That in the long run, and while all expectations were heading towards confirming a decrease in gas prices in the markets by 2023, however, after the speech of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin With the current geopolitical developments, and if things turn worse than they are now with regard to the ongoing war in Ukraine, this means that the price of raw materials will remain high, and therefore the economic crisis will increase, deepen and lengthen, and the unemployment rate will rise in addition to many social problems.
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Demands European Union Member states possess reserves of Gas At least 80 percent of its storage capacity by November 1st.
In his statement to “Sky News Arabia”, an energy expert, Philip Charles, considered that “this stock will not be sufficient to cover the next winter,” adding that it “will cover Europe’s needs for two or three months at the latest.”
Charles explained: “European countries will not risk waiting for this stockpile to run out, but will look for new and daily supplies to protect against a bigger crisis. Gas is an important source of production electricity In Europe, 20 percent of European electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants. The more rare it becomes, the higher its price. This has direct consequences for the price of electricity.”
He continued, “It should be noted that the imported gas is not used mainly for the production of electricity in Europe, because most of it is used for heating, by 50 percent, and 30 percent by industry, and then 20 percent for electricity generation.”
And if The war in Ukraine It has exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe, with the interruption of Russian gas supplies, it did not create this situation.
Before the war, energy prices were already structurally high due to the energy transition and the pivotal role of gas, and the rise dollar.
This is what Charles confirms by saying: “This crisis was expected, but it was not dealt with well in advance by politicians, and the Ukrainian crisis made matters worse.”
Prosthetic solutions in the face of the storm
To avoid possible gas shortages and power outages, European countries are taking several basic measures. The member states of the Union have committed to reducing their gas consumption by at least 15 percent between August 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023.
In Germany and France, the heating temperature of departments will not exceed 19 degrees Celsius, and bright advertisements will soon be banned between one and six in the morning in France in most public places.
In Spain, it is limited air conditioner At 27 degrees in shops, cinemas, theaters, airports and stations.
Also, countries that have preferred renewable energies as a primary option for energy generation are seeking to double their number and expand their areas of use.
An energy policy expert, Fabian Bogli, considers that these solutions “remain insufficient,” explaining that “reliance on renewable energies leads to a severe need for excavations. Nuclear reactors Nord Stream 1 will be phased out, the crisis will not be resolved.”
And Bogli indicated that “the only solution for Europe is to stop investing in renewable energies and to focus on nuclear reactors and to build new ones alongside the old ones.”
He added: “Thanks to nuclear power, the price in France in 2020 was 32.2 euros per megawatt-hour, and with the gas crisis that began in 2021 due to the decline in wind turbine production in Europe, the spot price reached 109 euros per megawatt-hour on average. Over the course of the year, the futures market has set a spot price of 1,000 euros per megawatt-hour, which expires in 2023.
He pointed out that “the electricity market in Europe is currently in a state of madness, partly due to the strong and increasing demand for natural gas, especially by countries that have invested heavily in wind turbines, and because of the move away from nuclear energy, and the crisis has been exacerbated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that has destabilized Gas supply stability in countries such as Germany“.
What Bogli worries about is that “in this period of electricity shortage, countries in deficit will have to import from neighboring countries, which is a phenomenon that increases electricity price inflation. So in winter, if nothing is done to restart the operation. In nuclear power plants, we will see a new rise in spot prices, which in turn will affect the bills of companies and families.”
As for Charles, he explained that in the event of a severe shortage of energy resources Thanks to the coming winter, this will cause a major economic crisis in Europe, and the industry will be most affected.
According to his speech, the countries that demand to reduce energy consumption by 10 to 20 percent, their demand is not in line with their demand with economic growth, noting by saying: “In 2020, with the spread of the Corona epidemic, energy consumption in France decreased by 20 percent, but in return A 6% recession has been recorded. This is what may happen next year with better solutions winter“.
In turn, the economist at Oxford Economics for global economic forecasting and econometric analysis, Ricardo Marcelli Fabiani, considered, in connection with the “Sky News Arabia” website, that in the long run, while all expectations were going towards confirming the decline in gas prices in the markets by 2023. However, after the Russian President’s speech, Vladimir Putin With the current geopolitical developments, and if things turn worse than they are now with regard to the ongoing war in Ukraine, this means that the price of raw materials will remain high, and therefore the economic crisis will increase, deepen and lengthen, and the unemployment rate will rise in addition to many social problems.