Just as it was done during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, coronavirus COVID-19this 2022 could also give a new withdrawal of AFP in Peru. This initiative is still found as part of the projects pending approval in the Economy Commission of the Congress. However, given the possibility that it materializes, the Ministry of Economy (MEF) and the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) have warned of its risks
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Among the options contemplated in this project, there are two that stand out: one in which the withdrawal of up to 4 UIT (S / 18,400) is allowed and another of 100% of the amount saved in the AFP. And it is these two alternatives that cause the greatest concern, since they could bring consequences to the country’s economy.
“As withdrawals increase, AFPs find it necessary to sell less liquid assets and this could have a significant impact on prices“said the Vice Minister of Economy, Alex Contreras. In addition, he stressed that the current context has a new panorama thanks to the progress of vaccination and recovery of investment, so it would not be in a scenario similar to that of 2020 and these measures would not be necessary.
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Proposals for the return of AFP 2022
The most worrying proposal for the experts is the one supported by the caucus of Free Peruresponsible for preparing the Bill No. 00929/2021-CRthe same one that mentions that 100% of AFP savings should be withdrawn in a maximum time of 30 calendar days from the officialization of the norm.
“Investors will see that Peruvian bonds will reduce their value, an important part of them are foreign and they will sell (the bonds) in soles, to buy dollars and take those funds. There is risk of impact on the dollar and inflation”, points out Adrián Armas, central manager of Economic Studies of the BCR, who emphasizes that this measure could be inflationary and could also affect the exchange rate.
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For her part, Congresswoman We can Peru (PP), Dina Callehas applied for the optional withdrawal of funds from the Individual Capitalization Account (CIC) for a total amount to 4 OFF (S/18,400) within a maximum period of 90 calendar days. This average would benefit more than 7 million affiliates, including contributors and former contributors. Would two retractions of 1 UIT (S/ 4600 each) and a third of 2 ITU (S/ 9200).
Finally, Joseph Moon (PP) suggested a withdrawal of 4UIT for those affiliates who have not contributed for at least three months prior to publication of the standard, and 2 UIT for those who currently work or do so intermittentlywith regular contributions.
SBS on alert for projects
The Superintendency of Banking, Insurance and AFPs (SBS) projected a couple of weeks ago that if the bills are passed 929/2021-CR, 1117/2021-CR, 1118/2021-CR y 1119/2021-CRbetween 22,011 million and 77,869 million soles would come out of the AFP pension funds.
In his presentation at the Commission of Economy, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence of the Congress of the Republic to comment on the impact of these bills, the deputy superintendent of AFP of the SBS, elio sanchez, indicated that these proposals could dramatically reduce the current savings for retirement, further aggravating the problem presented by low pensions. In addition, this could generate distortions in the economy.
“The legal retirement age is 65 years, but the effective retirement age is 59 years., he highlighted. In addition, those who have made the most early withdrawals, according to Sánchez, have been young affiliates and thus reduced their own savings horizon. While those over 35 years of age, reduce their future pension by 35% to 36% when making early withdrawals, according to him.
These projects still have to be discussed by the Economy Commission of the Congress of the Republic. Initially, a session had been called for this debate during the day of Tuesday, April 5. However, it was postponed until a later date. At this meeting, it is expected that the opinion will be drawn up, which must then be approved by the Commission in question and later by the Plenary Session of Congress.