The World Bank warned that global food and energy prices will face upward pressure through 2026 and 2027, driven by armed conflicts, expensive energy markets, and the potential severity of an El Niño climate cycle.
According to an analysis reported by Más Información, international commodity markets face mounting volatility as geopolitical risks collide with weather disruptions. While initial headlines cited an 18% food price surge, the underlying data from the Washington-based institution details broader commodity and energy shifts rather than a flat food inflation projection.
The Bottom Line
- Brent crude oil is projected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027 under baseline assumptions.
- Fertilizer costs are expected to climb 14% in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels by 2027, adding immediate pressure to agricultural operational expenses.
- Industrial metals are forecast to jump 25% in 2026, driven by renewable energy infrastructure, artificial intelligence data centers, and electric vehicle production.
Energy Markets and Middle East Conflict Projections
Energy costs remain the primary transmission channel for broader economic inflation. The World Bank projects that global energy prices will jump 32% across 2026, largely due to ongoing hostilities in the Middle East that continue to disrupt petroleum trade and inflate transportation expenses.
Under the baseline forecast, Brent crude will move from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $91 per barrel in 2026. If regional hostilities escalate further, the institution warns that the Brent benchmark could reach $105 per barrel by 2027, which would trigger an estimated 12% additional increase in global food prices on top of baseline projections.
Agricultural Inputs and Climate Disruptions
Agricultural supply chains face dual pressures from expensive chemical inputs and unpredictable weather patterns. Fertilizer prices are slated for a 14% increase through 2026, squeezing farm operating margins before supply adjustments theoretically pull prices back down toward 2025 levels in 2027.
| Commodity / Input | 2025 Baseline | 2026 Projection | 2027 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil (per barrel) | $69 | $91 | $79 (Baseline) / $105 (Escalation) |
| Fertilizers | Baseline Level | +14% Increase | Return to 2025 Levels |
| Industrial Metals | Baseline Level | +25% Increase | Dependent on Industrial Demand |
Concurrently, the El Niño climate phenomenon threatens agricultural yields across major production basins. Altered precipitation and temperature anomalies in the Pacific basin risk reducing crop output, tightening global inventories, and driving up basic food distribution costs.
Vulnerabilities in Global Food Security and Developing Economies
Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, noted that commodity markets have absorbed several major shocks simultaneously, leaving lower-income populations and debt-burdened sovereign nations particularly vulnerable to basic food inflation.
Higher fuel and fertilizer expenses immediately increase the cost of harvesting, storing, and transporting agricultural goods to domestic markets. For import-dependent nations, currency depreciation and elevated shipping rates compound the difficulty of maintaining adequate food supplies for low-income households.
Industrial Metal Surges and Regional Economic Exposure
Industrial metals tell a parallel story of constrained supply and surging demand. The World Bank expects metals like aluminum, copper, and tin to climb 25% in 2026, reaching historic highs as utilities and technology firms scale up investments in grid modernization, data centers, and electrification.
For Mexico, international commodity shifts require close monitoring of import bills, exchange rate fluctuations, and domestic agricultural output. While the data does not confirm an isolated 18% jump for Mexican food baskets, local retail and production costs remain directly tethered to North American supply chains, global fertilizer pricing, and international energy benchmarks.
