2024-03-18 00:00:00
People Power Party candidate Won Hee-ryong (left) and Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myeong running for Gyeyang-eul, Incheon./News 1
According to the results of a survey of the five major battlegrounds ahead of the 4.10 general election, three battles, including Seoul Jung-Seongdong-gap, Incheon Gyeyang-eul, and Gyeongnam Yangsan-eul, were close races within the margin of error, while Yesan-Hongseong, Chungcheongnam-do and Suwon-gun, Gyeonggi Province, were outside the margin of error, but the gap was not large. appear.
According to the JoongAng Ilbo on the 18th, this was the result of a survey conducted by Gallup Korea on the approval ratings among National Assembly candidates among 500 male and female voters aged 18 or older living in five major constituencies from the 11th to the 14th.
In Gyeyang-eul, Incheon, the biggest battleground known as the ‘Great Dragon Battle’, Lee Jae-myeong, the Democratic Party candidate, had a gap of 48%, and People Power Party candidate Won Hee-ryong had a gap of 40%, within the margin of error (±4.4%). In Yangsan-eul, Gyeongnam, where former Gyeongnam governors faced off, it was a close race with People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-ho winning 45% and Democratic Party candidate Kim Doo-gwan winning 41%.
In Seoul Central-Seongdong-gap, where the ‘culture-mist conflict’ once arose due to the cutoff of former President Lim Jong-seok’s chief of staff, People Power Party candidate Yoon Hee-sook and Democratic Party candidate Jeon Hyun-hee were tied at 39% each.
In Hongseong-Jesan, South Chungcheong Province, where a former senior civil society official in the President’s Office and a former South Chungcheong governor are competing, People Power Party candidate Kang Seung-gyu was ahead of Democratic Party candidate Yang Seung-jo (37%) with 46%, just outside the margin of error. In Suwon County, Gyeonggi Province, where a former Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy and a pro-Myeong faction member faced off, People Power Party candidate Bang Gyu won 35%, falling behind Democratic Party candidate Kim Youngjin (44%), just outside the margin of error.
When asked about the prospects for the ruling party and the pan-opposition group to win seats, in Jung-Seongdong-gap, the ruling party was 40%, the pan-opposition group was 43%, in Gyeyang-eul, the ruling party was 40%, the pan-opposition group was 47%, and in Suwon Byeong, the ruling party was 37% and the pan-opposition group was 44%. The pan-opposition group was ahead within the margin of error. On the other hand, in Yangsan-eul, the ruling party had an advantage within the margin of error with 45% and the pan-opposition party with 37%, and in Hongseong-Yesan, the ruling party had a significant lead with 49% and the pan-opposition party with 33%.
When asked about the intention to vote for a proportional representation party, the approval ratings in all five constituencies were in the following order: People’s Future (People Power Party proportional satellite party), Democratic Alliance for Democracy (Democratic Party-led proportional satellite party), and Fatherland Innovation Party. The support rate for the Fatherland Innovation Party as a proportional party by region was 20% each in Jung-Seongdong-gap and Gyeyang-eul, 15% in Suwon Byeong-eul and Yangsan-eul, and 12% in Hongseong-Yesan.
This survey was conducted using wireless phone interviews using virtual mobile phone numbers targeting male and female voters over the age of 18. Jung-Seongdong Gap had 505 people on the 13th and 14th (response rate 9.3%), Gyeyang-eul had 501 people on the 14th (response rate 10.5%), Suwon Disease had 502 people on the 13th and 14th (response rate 11.2%), and Hongseong-Yesan had 11~ The survey targeted 501 people (response rate 14.6%) on the 12th, and 502 people (response 11.5%) on the 11th and 12th in Yangsan-eul, and the sampling error is up to ±4.4% points at the 95% confidence level. For more information, please refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website.
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