2024-04-09 18:49:43
2024-04-10 02:49 Economic Daily Editorial Diagram of U.S.-China relations.Reuters
U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping just had a phone conversation, during which they warned each other; Treasury Secretary Yellen visited China for tough negotiations. Six months ago, Commerce Secretary Raimondo visited China. Huawei launched new mobile phones in a timely manner to demonstrate its achievements in breaking through the US blockade. More than a month ago, National Security Advisor Sullivan held talks with Wang Yi, Director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China, focusing on what he said. The Taiwan Strait issue is “full of landmines”. The United States has not achieved the good results it expected because China has a firm stance and will, as well as deep strategic planning skills, making it a difficult opponent.
Biden and Xi Jinping did not reach much substantive consensus during their meeting last year. The press releases issued by the two sides after this phone conversation were completely different and contained strong warnings to each other. It is foreseeable that the struggle between Washington and Beijing will continue after the meeting, the United States’ containment of China in all aspects will not be narrowed in scope and intensity, and the CCP’s struggle against the United States and Taiwan on the Taiwan issue will not ease. Biden faces dual pressures from losing the re-election campaign and being unable to continue the war in Ukraine. He must demonstrate his ability to communicate with and exert pressure on the Beijing authorities, and he must also warn China not to assist the Russian arms industry.
China focused on the Taiwan issue and spoke very strongly. Xi Jinping said that China-US relations must fasten the “first button” of “strategic understanding”; he clearly told Biden that if he “condoned and supported” the split of Taiwan’s independence forces This activity has touched the “first red line” of the CCP, and Beijing “will not let it go unchecked.” Xi’s warning was clear and tough as never before. The Taiwan issue is not only the core issue in U.S.-China relations, but also the most likely tipping point in the relationship. Before quasi-president Lai Ching-te took office, China made a show of force and demanded that the United States not encourage Taiwan’s independence ambitions.
Treasury Secretary Yellen warned before her visit to China that China has overproduction of clean energy and the United States will impose tariffs if it dumps it to the world. China responded by saying, “Don’t take advantage of the situation.” Yellen has held talks with Chinese Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng and Prime Minister Li Qiang. The issue she is most concerned about is protecting U.S. industries and requires China to deal with the problem of excess production capacity in clean energy fields such as electric vehicles and solar energy. China will not accept it in full. After all, it has listed electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy as the “three new things” as strategic industries that can alleviate its internal economic difficulties and establish its leading position in the world. How can it immediately respond to pressure from the United States? Backing off? China did not provide a specific response to Yellen’s “Guidelines” in its official press release, but only focused on the U.S.’s economic and trade restrictions on China. This shows that the two sides have deep differences and the contradictions are difficult to fully resolve.
Yellen may also be concerned about China’s reduction in its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and hopes that China will increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, or at least not reduce its holdings, so as not to hinder the stability of the U.S. economy. This is China’s bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States. Unless the United States does not go too far in setting trade barriers, China will not easily agree.
The game between the United States and China has now entered a stage of strategic stalemate, and both sides have their own bargaining chips. The United States’ intention to carry out all-round suppression on China has not diminished, but it has found that the game with China is quite difficult and a “hard nut to crack”, and the suppression effect is often less than expected.
U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi demonstrated “Chinaphobia” in Europe a few days ago. She called on European countries to jointly respond to the challenges posed by China’s economic model to the U.S. and European economic open systems, and bluntly said that “this is a matter that requires (government) intervention.” She pointed out that China’s effective and very successful economic plan, from trade, production to consumption growth, is increasingly putting pressure on the US and European economies. She called on all countries to work together to “recover the economic opportunities lost by American and European companies in China’s competition that is not based on a market system.”
China’s system has its weaknesses, but the nationwide system has its advantages in planning overall strategy, mobilization, and execution. It can not only alleviate external pressure, but also enhance external competitiveness. China is trying to leverage its institutional advantages to respond to external threats and has broken through the technological blockade of Western countries in some areas.
In this regard, Commerce Secretary Raimondo has learned a lesson. When she visited China in September last year, Huawei launched a new 5G mobile phone, and Raimondo was “surprised by this phone.” China is indeed difficult to deal with. National Security Advisor Sullivan met with Wang Yi at the end of January this year. He stated that the two sides discussed cross-Strait issues in depth and shared their respective positions. However, because the issues were “full of landmines”, the contents could not be made public; the dangers involved could be Just imagine.
This is China, full of fighting spirit and resourcefulness. Western countries are quite constrained in containing China, and they may even suffer the consequences.
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