And bref :
- Dead calm in the Atlantic Ocean;
- The first hurricane is late compared to the average;
- The action could resume soon/.
In the past seven years, the first tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin has appeared before the official start of the season on June 1. These hasty events have helped give the impression of a lethargic season so far. In fact, the first system of 2022, Alex, arrived only a few days after the official date, that is, June 5. Subsequently, Bonnie trained on July 1 and Colin followed the next day.
Since then, it has been radio silence in the Atlantic. No system with sufficient power to be named has developed. One of the factors which explain this tranquility is the presence of sand coming from the Sahara, which came to put spokes in the wheels of the tropical activity.
For the first time since 1982, the Atlantic Ocean experienced no named storms between July 3 (after Colin) and August 26. By comparison, no less than nine named storms had formed on this date last year. One of them, Ida, even evolved into a category 4 hurricane, becoming the strongest to make landfall in the southern United States since Katrina in 2005.
Despite a favorable context…
It’s a bit strange, since the context is ideal for an active season. The presence of La Niña, a cold water anomaly located in the Pacific, often amplifies tropical activity considerably. Even if the phenomenon is still there, it is not enough to see storms worthy of the name.
The basin therefore accumulates a certain delay: on average, the first hurricane forms around August 11th. It usually takes until September 1 to see the first major hurricane, either category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For the moment, there is no indication that this threshold will be reached.
The climax is coming
However, the situation can change quickly. The most active period for hurricanes is approaching: the peak is generally reached at the beginning of September. The temperature of the waters in the equatorial Atlantic basin is then at its warmest. Winds are also somewhat calmer due to less contrast between air masses. This context means that there is less shear, a component that hinders the formation of tropical storms. La Niña could also contribute to elevated activity over the coming weeks.
Two zones are currently to be monitored towards South America. The development of tropical activity cannot be ruled out, which could breathe new life into the season. The situation will be monitored closely over the next few days.
NOAA is still predicting a very active season, with between 14 and 20 systems named by the end of November. Of these, six could become hurricanes, and between three and five could even reach the major hurricane threshold.