2023-10-01 18:16:24
It has been more than a year and a half since Russia invaded Ukraine. And it still doesn’t look like the war in Ukraine will end in the near future.
Marcus Keupp caused a stir with a statement at the end of 2022. The ETH military economist said at the time that the war had already been strategically decided in favor of Ukraine. In an interview with the “Handelszeitung” he now comments on his forecasts again.
“I still stand by my statement that the war will be strategically decided in October,” explains Keupp. The operational stocks are gradually being used up.
“With every day of the war, the Russians are becoming more worn out and their position is getting worse,” the military economist continues. A good 40 percent of all Russian artillery losses occurred in the last three months.
“The way the war is going, the Russian regime cannot win. Strategically it has already lost,” he explains in an interview with “Zeit”.
In 2022, Keupp also predicted that Ukraine would win the war in 2023. Now the 46-year-old clarified his statement at the time in an interview. By this he does not mean that the fighting would end.
“If Putin were a militarily rational person, he would have long since realized that he can no longer win the war,” explains Keupp. The Russian ruler feared “that his regime would collapse completely if he suddenly withdrew his troops.”
Vladimir Putin now has to think of some kind of exit narrative in order to make the defeat look like a “limited success”. He also considers a nuclear escalation to be “a pure bluff,” says Keupp, who teaches career officers in the Swiss Army as a lecturer in military economics at ETH Zurich.
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