Belgian police carried out a large-scale operation on Monday which reminded people that the threat of Islamist terrorism still looms over the country, says Thomas Renard, director of the International Center for the Fight against Terrorism (ICCT). Renard believes that while the threat is more diffuse than it was several years ago, there are still individuals who pose a serious risk. He also warns that radicalisation via the internet, particularly through encrypted messaging, is of growing concern. Renard notes that, while Belgian prisons are more closely monitored for extremist activity, the threat from far-right terrorism is on the rise across Europe.
A large-scale police operation, carried out on Monday, reminded Belgians that, even if it has been more diffuse in recent years, the Islamist terrorist threat continues to hang over the country. “Some jihadist profiles are more worrying because they remain in a kind of fantasy”warns Thomas Renard, director of the International Center for the Fight against Terrorism (ICCT) and associate researcher at the Egmont Institute. Interview.
Were you surprised by this counter-terrorist operation?
We are always a little surprised when we discover such an operation. Attempts at complex, coordinated attacks by several individuals are becoming rarer.
Seven of the eight people arrested were charged with participation in a terrorist groupand four of them, more severely still, for “attempted assassination in a terrorist context”. Was carnage avoided in your opinion?
It’s impossible to say as it stands. Different services of the federal judicial police have coordinated, which means that there has been a lot of preparation. We dismantled a number of visibly connected individuals who could have provoked complex and coordinated attacks of a certain magnitude. But we cannot make an immediate link between the number of individuals, the progress of the preparations and the potential damage. In the past, complex operations have failed, while unprepared individuals with limited means have done tremendous damage.
It was learned that the targets included police offices and Bart De Wever, because of the ban on the wearing of convictional signs at the counters of the public administration in Antwerp…
Today, attacks tend to be more targeted. Targeting sends a more precise message, which is the principle of terrorism. A jihadist-type attack against the population is symbolically less strong than an attack targeting a head of state, a minister, a specific institution… There are therefore fewer indiscriminate attacks against civilians.
However, we remain at threat level 2 on the Ocam scale, which is rather low…
The terrorist threat is lower than a few years ago but it is still there. Whereas in 2013-2014 it was concrete and permanent, we have evolved towards a more diffuse threat. But there are still a number of individuals who represent a real and serious threat in Belgium.
Do the authorities minimize the risk in their communication with the population?
They usually exaggerate it. But, in this case, the very cautious approach is sound. The judicial authorities quickly communicated a minimum of information, which allowed everyone to fully understand what was happening, avoiding unnecessary speculation. I was then surprised at how little information leaked out.
What is the profile of these radicals?
We know that one of the young people arrested in Eupen had been arrested for acts when he was a minor and had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State at the time. We can deduce that we are on an attempted jihadist-type attack. In this case, it is not an isolated action as we have seen in recent years in Belgium, but it is nevertheless impossible to speak of a cell at this stage.
Does Belgium remain a privileged target of jihadists?
Belgium is no more a target than its neighbours, Germany and France in particular. On the other hand, we were particularly affected by the phenomenon of fighters attracted by Syria or Iraq, who remain on the radar of the anti-terrorism services. About a hundred people were prevented from leaving and another hundred returned. Those who have not yet managed to reach Syria or Iraq are potentially more worrying. They have not been able to realize the realities on the ground and remain in a kind of fantasy in relation to the caliphate project. They are therefore more likely to take action than those who have returned and who, in general, are disillusioned and traumatized.
In addition, there is the particular context of the trial of the 2016 attacks which is currently taking place. These kinds of big lawsuits have always been seen as a potential target.
Who commits to the terrorist act and is there a typical profile? At the trial of the Brussels attacks, experts testify
Are mosques places of radicalization in Belgium?
No, they never really were. Some were more radical, without being places where we call for terrorism. But, around these, could gravitate individuals who sought to recruit. Things happened more in garages, during dinners… Today, the first place of radicalization and recruitment is the Internet, and in particular encrypted messaging. Potential attacks are the act of isolated individuals, psychologically fragile and very present on the Internet.
The police must therefore rush into these messaging services to track them down…
There is no more choice. If we don’t, we are blind to the threat. Many exchanges are done on encrypted messaging. A number of individuals still have open or semi-open profiles that they use to continue recruiting and then redirect their targets to channels like Telegram.
Are prisons places of enlistment for jihad?
Yes it’s clear. But, in Belgium, since 2015, there has been a strategy for monitoring radicalization in prison. These mechanisms make it possible to better detect problematic phenomena. As for individuals convicted of terrorism who have been released, they continue to be monitored and followed by the anti-terrorist services. This does not completely negate the risk of an individual stabbing people, as not all of them can be tailed permanently. But it is quite exceptional for an individual convicted of terrorism to commit a new terrorist act after his release from prison.
How to explain it?
By the effectiveness of anti-terrorism services, by the length of sentences, but also by the fact that terrorism is a phenomenon of young people. But that doesn’t mean they’re all going to give up on their ideas. Some will remain radicals. But do they still want to engage in terrorist activities when they know they are being watched, when they have already spent years in prison, when life in hiding is extremely burdensome…? Some may have taken the time to reflect and are no longer ready to die for the cause…
We often speak of jihadist or Islamist radicalization. What other types of radicalism should you watch out for?
If we look at France, Germany and the Netherlands, for example, we can clearly see that the threat of right-wing extremism is on the rise. A number of attacks of this type have been thwarted, and the anti-terrorist services are paying more attention to them. The number of individuals radicalized or arrested for links with the extreme right is growing exponentially, while the number of individuals linked to jihadism is rather in decline, even if it remains higher.
The so-called anti-constitutional or anti-government extremism is another growing movement, which is increasingly capturing the attention of counter-terrorism services in most European countries. These are movements fueled by different conspiracy theories, strongly mobilized around the vaccination against Covid. In Belgium, strangely, we were rather spared these threats.
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Are these radicals more difficult to spot by State Security or the police?
Yes, because this movement is not structured around clear groups such as Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State or Blood and Honor for the extreme right, and it is not automatically violent. Rather, it is individuals within these movements who will move towards violent actions.
What is difficult for the anti-terrorism services is to know if this movement is fundamentally linked to terrorism, or if it is a question of social work, democratic commitment and connection with the citizen, etc. These are almost ethical questions. In Belgium, these movements bring together tens of thousands of individuals, which is much more than the classic jihadist threat. Profiling them would take a lot more work.
Is the rise in far-right terrorism a reaction to Islamist terrorism?
Extremisms always respond to each other. Over the past fifteen years, with the emergence of global jihadism, far-right terrorist movements have reorganized in response to the perceived threat. Anders Breivik, who committed the Utoya massacre in 2011, is considered a figure in the new wave of right-wing extremism in Europe. He had developed a whole counter-jihad manifesto. Jihadist and far-right groups follow each other very closely, sometimes infiltrating social networks, sometimes being jealous of each other, and drawing inspiration from each other.
Is anti-terrorism sufficiently staffed in Belgium to follow all these profiles?
There have been real investments in recent years at all levels. We are therefore much more equipped than 15 years ago when the threat is lower. We are therefore in a stronger position. But, whatever we do, we can never prevent any terrorist act. The threat of an attack can today emanate from jihadism, the extreme right and anti-institutionalism, which potentially represents many more individuals. Security policy is about developing methodologies that identify where the threat is most likely to come from and focus on those individuals. We must therefore accept to have only one eye, even to close our eyes to other individuals. The fight against terrorism therefore involves taking a certain amount of risk.
The recent counter-terrorist operation in Belgium serves as a reminder that the threat of Islamist terrorism still exists in the country. While the terrorist threat has become more diffuse in recent years, there are still individuals who pose a real and serious threat. Director of the International Center for the Fight against Terrorism (ICCT), Thomas Renard, warns that some jihadist profiles remain in a kind of fantasy and continue to pose a risk. In addition to the threat from jihadist groups, anti-terrorism services are also paying closer attention to the rise of far-right and anti-government extremist movements, which are becoming increasingly difficult to spot. The fight against terrorism requires taking a certain amount of risk, and security policy is about developing methodologies that focus on individuals who pose the greatest threat. Despite the challenges, Belgium has made significant investments in anti-terrorism efforts and is better equipped today to prevent attacks than it was 15 years ago.