As property markets undergo their fastest contraction in decades, McGrath Estate Agents founder John McGrath released the McGrath Report 2027, identifying 40 suburban and regional growth markets across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania that he projects are approaching a cyclical floor.
Metro Property Values Approach Cyclical Bottom
- Major metropolitan markets have dropped 10-15 per cent over the past six months, with select areas falling as much as 20 per cent, according to John McGrath.
- The newly published McGrath Report 2027 highlights 40 specific growth suburbs across four states, targeting a mix of metro access points and regional migration hubs.
- Historical market corrections suggest large capital city property values are now close to their cyclical bottom.
Evaluating the Speed of the Current Correction
Speaking on the broader market conditions, McGrath noted that this downturn represents his eighth market correction over a 40-year career in real estate. While official data providers report single-digit declines, street-level realities indicate steeper adjustments across major metropolitan areas.
“This is my eighth market correction since I entered the industry more than 40 years ago, and it feels like the fastest fall in values I can remember,” McGrath said.
Data companies have largely pointed to modest pullbacks, but transaction realities on the ground tell a different story. Metropolitan centers have experienced drops ranging from 10-15 per cent over a six-month window, with certain pockets contracting by 20 per cent.
New South Wales Targets Focus on Metro Shift and Regional Tourism
In New South Wales, the report singles out Campsie in the metropolitan sector and Narooma in the regional tier. Campsie is positioned as a potential successor to Marrickville, which saw exponential capital growth over previous decades.
In the regional market, Narooma on the south coast features a median house price of $990,000. The location benefits from recent hospitality investments, including the Merivale Group’s motel opening, positioning it competitively against higher-priced coastal alternatives.
Infrastructure and Demographics Drive Growth in Victoria
Victoria’s selections highlight infrastructure-backed growth in Sunshine and demographic resilience in Mildura. Sunshine offers diverse housing stock near the city, supported by planned upgrades to the local transport hub.
Mildura presents a diversified regional economy spanning agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, and construction. Demographic forecasts project the town’s population to expand to over 66,000 residents by 2046, rising from 56,792 in 2021, alongside a projected 26.5% employment growth rate between 2026 and 2046.
Affordable Corridors Offer Strong Yields in Queensland and Tasmania
Queensland inclusions feature Beenleigh as an affordable metro-adjacent corridor between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, alongside Maryborough on the Fraser Coast, which offers heritage amenity and relative value compared to expensive coastal strips.
In Tasmania, Chigwell provides an affordable metropolitan alternative near Hobart with median values just over $600,000 and a 5.3% rental yield. Meanwhile, Mayfield in Launceston recorded a 27.9 per cent value increase over the prior year while maintaining a rental yield of approximately 5.6%.
| Location | State | Market Type | Key Metric / Price Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Narooma | NSW | Regional | Median house price: $990,000 |
| Mildura | VIC | Regional | Projected population: 66,000+ by 2046 |
| Chigwell | TAS | Metro | Median house value: ~$600,000 (5.3% yield) |
| Mayfield | TAS | Regional | Median house price: <$530,000 (5.6% yield) |
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
