2024-02-28 18:05:24
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 10% to reach a new 2024 high of $64,000 on February 28. Most of this month’s 50% price move is attributed to investors’ anticipation of the upcoming supply halving, which is usually followed by a sharp rise in prices.
Steady inflows into the recently launched Bitcoin spot ETFs are also believed to be playing a pivotal role in Bitcoin price developments.
Whoa.. $ GO took in $520 million all by itself yest, biggest haul for a btc ETF ever and 2nd most of any ETF yesterday, only $ IVV took in more cash.. it is now $8b in aum, top 5% among all ETFs. This means a good portion of that massive volume was new buying vs arb/algo. pic.twitter.com/tnq7SaN2di
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 28, 2024
Wow… $IBIT raised $520 million alone, the biggest haul for a btc ETF in history and the second largest value of any ETF yesterday, only $IVV raised more cash… it’s now $8k million in total, the top 5% among all ETFs. This means that a good portion of that massive volume was new purchases against arb/algo.
Some technical analysts have warned that Bitcoin’s market structure and high funding rates across the market are a sign of heavy use of leverage and the eventual emergence of a sell-off-driven correction.
I read many 200K forecasts. Just to note here that we are now close to resistance area between 65K-68K.
3 years ago I drew attention to that resistance. I again draw your attention to the horizontal resistance. pic.twitter.com/9VzwViYzMh
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) February 28, 2024
I have read many 200K forecasts. Just note here that we are now close to the resistance zone between 65K-68K.
3 years ago I highlighted this resistance. I draw your attention again to horizontal resistance.
Meanwhile, options analysts ignore voices claiming the price movement is overextended, and express their view that Bitcoin’s current price rally has a way to go.
Citing key Bitcoin options markets, open interest and funding rate, analyst Chris Newhouse said:
“In my view, the recent rally has aspects of a derivatives-driven move combined with an undercurrent of spot demand thanks to record ETF inflows. The breakout of the $53,000 zone demonstrated relative strength, the “Volumes were high, natural demand was there and momentum traders had started to enter the market.”
Independent market analyst Nunya Bizniz added to the bullish outlook for Bitcoin price, noting that Bitcoin’s monthly rise was above 70 and highlighting the fact that in previous market cycles, the price of BTC remained at a uptrend for at least 335 days after the RSI exceeded 70.
BTC monthly:
RSI at +70
Chart produced at @Travis_Kling‘s request.
# of days from cross above 70 to cycle peak.
Average is around a year.
Many expect peak in Q4 2025, what if it’s comes early in Q1 2025.
“Left Translated” cycle with help from ETF’s?
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) February 27, 2024
Mensual BTC:
RSI at +70
Graphic prepared at the request of @Travis_Kling.
Number of days from crossing above 70 to the peak of the cycle.
The average is around a year.
Many expect a peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, which does come early in the first quarter of 2025.
“Translated to the Left” cycle with the help of ETF?
Bitcoin is currently less than 13% from its all-time high, and many retail and institutional investors expect it to break the record level of $68,900 before the supply halving, expected in about 52 days.
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