2023-04-04 07:00:00
Not every free agent is signed with the same goal. Some newcomers are simply meant for depth in the roster, others are safe starters with a solid floor that the new general manager no longer expects to make huge leaps in performance from – but even such players have their value for NFL teams. The most interesting signings, however, are those of (young) talents who can possibly take their game to a new level at a new address. Today at TOUCHDOWN24, we’re taking a look at four of those boom-or-bust signings in NFL Free Agency 2023 and what their chances are of banging into their new team.
Marcus Davenport, Edge, Minnesota Vikings
Whoever ended up signing Davenport would put the team at risk with a player who simply failed to stay on the field in his early years in the league. But when he was on the field, Davenport was a real weapon. Since his first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Davenport has ranked in the top 20 among all edge defenders for pass rush win rate (17.8 percent) and pressure percentage (13.9 percent). And his running defense should not be underestimated either, with a PFF grade of 82.1 he was in 16th place among all edge defenders during this period.
There are reportedly injury protections for the #Vikings in their contract with pass rusher Marcus Davenport related to the injury he had last season. He’s entitled to $2M in per-game roster bonuses except for “a deterioration, aggravation or re-injury to his right shoulder.” pic.twitter.com/9rJsEIDeZA
— Kevin Brown (@KevinBrownNFL) March 26, 2023
It was not for nothing that the Saints gave up an additional first-round pick in the 2018 draft to get Davenport. The 26-year-old is an extremely talented player. The problem: To date, Davenport has not managed to be on the field with more than 600 snaps in just one season. The Vikings are now hoping that Davenport can finally break their bad luck. From a team perspective, the signing makes perfect sense as Za’Darius Smith is still at odds over a contract extension. Should Smith actually leave the Vikings, Davenport will need to replace 78 QB pressures and 10 sacks from 2022 – a tough task but within the realm of possibility for Davenport with the right fitness.
Tremaine Edmunds, Linebacker, Chicago Bears
Probably no other free-agent signing will be eyed like Edmunds, who has to fill in the big footsteps of Roquan Smith in Chicago. Edmunds had the third-highest PFF coverage grade of any linebacker in 2022 (86.9), forced incompletion on a strong 10.3 percent of his targets, and allowed just four explosive plays (ranked 9th among all LBs). He was also a solid tackler, his 6.5 percent missed tackle rate being the best of his young career – another sign of progress from a football IQ standpoint.
With his extremely long arms and impressive six-foot-three height, Edmunds has what it takes to establish himself as Chicago’s top offball linebacker in the league. To do this, however, he must confirm the performances shown from the previous year and must not fall back into old patterns. In his early years in the league, Edmunds had shown great weaknesses in coverage. In order to justify his monster contract (four years, $72 million, of which $50 million is guaranteed), Edmunds must therefore deliver – because the risk does not have to be examined in more detail given the numbers in the contract.
Andre Dillard, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee Titans
The Titans’ offensive line was by far the weakest pass-blocking unit last year, so something had to happen in the offseason. And indeed, the franchise not only parted ways with long-time starter Taylor Lewan, but also brought in a young and promising replacement in Dillard, albeit for a comparatively large amount of money (three years, 29 million). However, the contract is designed in such a way that not much money is paid “up front”, so the Titans can watch the experiment for a year without major financial damage.
“Experiment” because Dillard — a 2019 Eagles first-round pick — failed to earn a starting spot in Philadelphia. He was on the pitch with 677 snaps between 2019 and 2021, compared to just 37 snaps in the past season. That would be a big red flag at other locations, but last year the Eagles had an excellent O-Line in every spot. Or to put it another way: There was simply no place for Dillard, who still had a solid pass blocking grade from PFF in 2021 (71.1).
From the NFL owners meetings: #Titans GM Ran Carthon on OL Andre Dillard, and the team’s acquisitions in free agency.
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— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) March 26, 2023
The separation from the Eagles was probably the best thing that could have happened to Dillard. With the Titans, he now has a chance to show he wasn’t drafted in the first round for nothing. The talent is there, but the price is also high for a player with just 714 career snaps in four years, first-round history or not. That makes Dillard one of the biggest wildcards ahead of the upcoming season.
Kaden Elliss, Linebacker, Atlanta Falcons
Elliss is a name that probably only real NFL geeks (and all Saints fans) know. So it may have surprised some that the 27-year-old signed a very well-paid three-year contract in Atlanta in the offseason ($21.5 million, over $10 million guaranteed). Elliss is only starting his first NFL game in Week 10 of last year, and his 484 snaps from the last eight games of the season were more than any snaps he had on the field before in his career, which began as a seventh-round pick in 2019. His numbers are impressive: From week 10 to the end of the season, for example, Elliss had the highest PFF grade of any linebacker (89.9).
At 6’1″ and 250 pounds, Elliss is the prototype of a strongside linebacker who may see more blitz use in the future. His 80 pass rush snaps were the third most for any offball linebacker since Week 10. This element of his game gives him special value if he can improve his pass rush moves in Atlanta. New Saints DC Ryan Nielsen was a former defensive line coach in New Orleans, so he knows Elliss’ strengths and weaknesses inside out.
He must have had something to say about spending that kind of money on a 27-year-old player who has only hinted at his potential. Should Elliss hold his form from the second half of the season, he’s a real steal at this price point. But the risk cannot be explained away with a player with almost 835 career snaps. Elliss is the epitome of a boom-or-bust commitment.
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