Independent Football Regulator chair David Kogan stated he will resign if he faces any political pressure regarding Manchester City’s alleged financial breaches, declaring his personal and institutional independence absolute as the newly formed body prepares to introduce a new licensing regime for clubs later this season.
Fantasy & Market Impact
- Club Valuations Under Scrutiny: Enhanced fit-and-proper owner testing directly impacts long-term equity and ownership stability across top-flight clubs.
- EFL Revenue Streams: Potential structural shifts in parachute payments could redistribute financial liquidity down the English football pyramid.
- Regulatory Compliance Costs: Legal challenges initiated by clubs against regulatory rulings will be funded via direct levies on the participants.
Absolute Independence and the Manchester City Verdict
Speaking on Tuesday at the launch of the long-awaited State of the Game report, David Kogan addressed the looming shadow of an independent commission’s verdict finding Manchester City guilty of breaching Premier League financial rules over a nine-year period. Kogan confirmed that if the verdict is upheld at the end of an ongoing appeal process, the Independent Football Regulator could remove City’s Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG).
Concerns surrounding potential political interference—stemming from the close proximity of City’s ownership to Abu Dhabi’s rulers—were rebuffed by the regulator’s chair. “Our independence is absolute and my independence personally is absolute,” Kogan stated. He added that any form of political interference in their operations would result in his resigning from this role, noting that the regulator has come under no political pressure to date.
The State of the Game Report and Pyramid Finances
The newly published report lays bare the financial challenges facing the English football pyramid. Data reveals that the highest-earning top-flight club currently generates 605 times the revenue of the lowest-earning National League club. Furthermore, financial losses are pervasive, with 94% of the 116 clubs under the regulator’s regime posting a financial loss during the 2025-26 period.
Even when excluding player wages entirely, 11 Football League clubs still faced expenses that surpassed their total revenue, in what stands as the most alarming finding. Lisa Nandy for digital, culture, media and sport, asserted that the stark figures had “blown the doors off the game,” urging football authorities to address the findings for the wellbeing of fans and communities.
| Metric | Top-Flight vs. Lower Tiers |
|---|---|
| Clubs Under Regulator Regime | 116 |
| Regime Clubs Posting Loss (2025-26) | 94% |
| EFL Offered Redistribution (Annual) | £320m |
| Revenue Disparity Factor | 605x |
Licensing Regimes and Owner Suitability Powers
As the regulator prepares to deploy its new licensing regime later this season, the scope of investigative oversight will widen. The regulator has powers to review not only owners, directors, and senior executives, but also whether those owners are fit and proper people to run clubs moving forward.
Kogan emphasized that intervention relies on detailed knowledge and information, which requires a certain amount of investigation. Should an owner ultimately be found to have failed a fitness test related to integrity, honesty, and financial soundness, the regulator could force a club sale. Disputed decisions resulting in legal action will see clubs footing the bill through a funding levy.
Financial Redistribution and Parachute Payments
External economic pressures—including the expansion of the club calendar, the regulation of players’ agents, and the recent rise in interest rates—continue to strain club finances outside the regulator’s purview. However, Kogan pointed to an immediate remedy: a redistribution deal between the Premier League and the EFL.
While acknowledging the Premier League’s arguments regarding the need for parachute payments due to colossal drops in revenue caused by relegation, Kogan believes they have had a distortive effect that’s grown over the years. Reducing parachute payments but increasing the amount going to all clubs would introduce a softening effect throughout the 116 clubs.
The IFR’s report objectives are satisfied by a recent financial sharing proposal estimated at £320m annually, according to the Premier League as it defended its economic track record. Meanwhile, the EFL maintained that English football generates sufficient revenue to sustain both a successful Premier League and a thriving pyramid, signalling a continued commitment to securing a financial settlement in the interests of the whole game.
Disclaimer: The fantasy and market insights provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
