Düsseldorf There may be signs of a trend reversal in the markets. Reason: The yields on benchmark bonds in the USA and Germany have now risen to their highest level since the beginning of the corona pandemic. A further increase is unlikely to leave the German stock market unscathed and at least cause higher fluctuations.
The current evaluation of the Handelsblatt survey Dax Sentiment does not indicate any easing of the situation either. Despite the falling prices in the past two days, optimism about the future has declined. Few investors see the low prices as an entry opportunity, and willingness to invest has also decreased.
The further development of the stock markets is likely to depend on the answers to two questions: Will the Omikron variant lead to lockdown measures? Will higher inflation data force the central banks to end their loose monetary policy much faster than previously expected?
The stock market year 2022 had started brilliantly, but slight weaknesses have crept in since last Wednesday. This negative trend continues today, Monday. At noon, the Dax was down 0.2 percent at 15,919 points. Last Friday, the Dax slipped to 15,862 points and ended the trading week 0.7 percent in the red at 15,948 points.
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Investors should keep an eye on the 15,800 point mark on the downside. According to the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey, there is again demand from institutional investors in this area. On the other hand, according to the technical analysis, there is important support there.
Martin Utschneider, technical analyst at the private bank Donner & Reuschel, believes that a test of this area is possible today, Monday. His forecast for today’s daily range is between 15,989 points on the top and 15,843 points on the bottom. With today’s low of 15,840 digits, the bottom was tested in the first hour of trading.
With sustainable prices below 15,800 positions on the Dax, the hope of a successful month on the stock market in January would be a thing of the past. The seasonal strength due to fresh investor money would then only have lasted for three days – a low value compared to other years.
The high inflation data in Germany and Europe and, most recently, the significant increase in hourly wages in the USA have pushed government bond yields up significantly. The ten-year US government bond reached 1.8 percent last Friday after the stock market closed in Germany, the highest value since the beginning of the pandemic. on Monday, the value initially climbed further up to 1,808 percent. However, it is currently 1.7745 percent again.
Analysts think it is possible that the US yield will quickly rise to two percent. In the medium term, the way would then be paved in the direction of 2.5 to 3.2 percent – this is where the yield peaks from 2013 to 2018 were. Investment professionals expect three interest rate hikes this year, the first should take place in March.
International fund managers wanted to sell shares in May 2021 at the mark of two percent return on a ten-year US government bond. If this view is still valid, market experience tells you that the first sales will take place before this round brand.
Last Friday, the ten-year federal bond reached minus 0.031 percent, its highest level since mid-May 2019. With an interim minus 0.025 percent on Monday, the interest rate turnaround was not far away, but it is currently 0.047 percent again.
A clear decision on the further direction of yields could be made on Wednesday. Then the US inflation data will be released.
Look at further individual values
On the first day of trading this week, the sector rotation will continue unabated in purely blue chips, with some strong sales of high-growth stocks. In the Dax, the papers from Fresenius, Fresenius Medical Care and BMW are ahead. The list of losers is led by the shares of the laboratory equipment supplier Sartorius, followed by those of the cooking box mail order company Hellofresh and the online fashion retailer Zalando.
BMW: A positive analyst comment causes the share to rise by 2.6 percent to 98.05 euros. The experts at Goldman Sachs have upgraded the title to “Buy” and raised the target price to 123 from 110 euros.
Adidas: The sporting goods company starts with its announced share buyback. By the end of March alone, Adidas wants to acquire its own shares for up to one billion euros, as the company announced.
Overall, Adidas wants to buy its own shares for up to four billion euros by 2025 and thus distribute capital to the shareholders. The shares acquired are to be withdrawn and the share capital is to be reduced. The paper is 0.3 percent in the red.
Delivery Hero: The globally active food delivery service from Germany is releasing part of its stake in its Latin American competitor Rappi. In the past few months, a stake worth $ 150 million has been sold. Now the Dax group still holds just under eight percent of Rappi worth around $ 400 million.
Delivery Hero also plans to part with the rest of the stake in the course of time in order to concentrate on other investments. Delivery Hero recently acquired a majority stake in its Spanish competitor Glovo.
The share is down 1.9 percent on Monday. Last week, the loss in value was more than 13 percent.
First signs of panic among Bitcoin investors
There are early signs of panic among crypto investors. This is shown by the current data from the Handelsblatt survey and the survey by the analysis company AnimusX, which have reached extremely negative values. Such a mood is helpful for a long-term bottoming out.
A comparatively negative mood already prevailed in May of last year, when the Bitcoin price was quoted at around $ 40,000. In retrospect, the mood formed the prelude to several months of bottoming out, which reached its lowest point in July with a brief slide below the 30,000 mark.
At the beginning of September the price was quoted again at $ 52,000. However, due to their lower history, these data are less informative than other sentiment surveys.
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