2024-04-05 08:30:00
The government does not seem to stop open conflict fronts every day and taking risks that seem in many cases unnecessary or the result of haste. To recapitulate only the most recent, we could point out that at the beginning of this week, in the middle of a dengue outbreak in the region and after many public requests, even from more sympathetic journalists, the Minister of Health, Mario Russo, He gave interviews and released a statement in which he practically limited himself to pointing out that “Health must be decentralized,” using repellent and long pants, without setting a clear course of action for the issue of mosquitoes.
We can also mention that regarding the proposal of judges for the Supreme Courtthe name of Ariel Lijo It aroused indignation among political insiders and outsiders and also among many judicial management circles that have long been fighting for the quality of Justice.
For their part, it is difficult for rate increases do not generate countless appeals for protection and it is not impossible to think that they could even lead to a user rebellion. and as if this were not enough, the government insists on restoring the Income Tax and let us also remember the noise with the international conflicts.
Criticism of the system, self-confidence and disconcerting responses: the key to Milei’s success
Will we be in the presence of a government that covers more than it can or simply one that take confusion as a strategy to stay in power by resorting to tactics that blur the line between reality and confusion? The creation of daily crises that provoke conflicts with other political, social or international actors sometimes seem to be a distraction to divert attention from real problems o to justify “quasi-authoritarian” measures¨ The climate of uncertainty and mistrust that these discussions generate today do not lead to the discredit of the government but rather seem to lead society to defend and support the measures and even the artificial crises created.
However, there remains a problem in this because a government that seeks confusion as a strategy to remain in power tends to undermine democratic principles and human rights, prioritizing its political survival about him well-being and stability of the society.
April, which begins now, seems to be like a tightrope in which the government will balance trying to reach May with the necessary consensus to achieve the signing of the May Pact and the approval of the Modified Base Law. The government in fact seems focused on achieving this consensus by May and the only one who can maintain balance in the relationship between the nation and the provinces is the current minister. Guillermo Francos.
At least for the moment, the interior portfolio, which was the most likely to undergo a renewal for a long time, today seems to be the most unlikely to be affected because it turns out to be the most strategic in the immediate future.
Strategic move or revenge? The fight between Javier Milei and the governors
We do not know if Milei has already learned after his first setbacks with the fall. omnibus law in deputies and that of rejection of the DNU in senators or if he will continue with his idea that negotiating is necessarily synonymous with corruption. We are still trying to understand if what it does Javier Miley Declaring in public about governors and legislators is an electoral strategy for the future, a pose anticasta in which it was stuck, a way of administering power for a form of government or simply the whim of wanting to impose a government plan pretending that other political actors do not exist.
In any case, we have already seen that many of Milei’s grandiose statements later, in concrete decisions, dissolve quite a bit. That’s why what the president does seems to be just “football for the stands”. What Francos and his cabinet do and manage to obtain is where the fate of the government will really be resolved in May, and probably that of the entire half of this administration.
Behind the resolution of the May Pact will begin little by little race for legislative elections mid-term. It is clear that Freedom Advances He’s already thinking right now. It seeks to create a libertarian party at the national level to stop being a front and become a party through the corresponding legal entities. At the moment they are paying attentions ¨muchachos LLaryoristas¨ to the assembly of Córdoba where these procedures have already begun, putting the current LLA deputy Gabriel Bornoroni at the head of the process and where it is very likely that they will be able to put together something together with Luis Judge. This Sunday they will make official the launch of LLA as a party in CABA. The person who will lead this event is the president’s sister, Karina Mileiwho is behind the organization of this armed group.
The Battles of Milei
If the government endures this storm that is approaching in April, it will be difficult to overshadow it. The opposition is disoriented, muddy, bewildered and quite inactive; partly because the polls continue to give a higher level of approval than disapproval of the government and partly because they suffer a process of internal discussions and lack of leadership.
During this time the LLA will see if they are able to take advantage of this vacuum in the opposition to fully occupy the executive role and reach the May Pact and the new law Bases which, beyond its legal effects, at the symbolic level of politics, would mean a great victory for libertarians. Until today, there is a part of the opposition with lukewarm support. For example, in the labor reform where the ruling party wants to go deep into issues such as the union fund but the opposition does not dare, so it proposes more moderate reforms that are not well regarded either. by the government that maintains its position that if it does not go far enough it is better to do nothing.
The judicialization of the relationship between nation and provinces It is also an issue because it is difficult to negotiate if there is a judicial dispute involved and they will surely have to lower some flags and rethink some cuts or reforms to give the governors the chance to sit down and negotiate.
It is very difficult for the provinces to accept what the national executive tries to impose. This claims that, overnight the provinces take charge of almost everything what until now organized the nation but at the same time cuts co-participation they need to take care of these things.
Polenta again?
The strongest opposition is drawn and is fighting to survive his own internal. There is a struggle between leaders trying to find who can lead each of the opposition spaces. If there was a leader there would be a clear direction on how to confront the government. But in both Peronism and radicalism we see more confusion than anything else. The first are fighting between traditional Peronists, Kirchnerists and ex-Kirchnerists and the latter have as president Lousteau that every day he seems to move further away in his statements from the actions of the majority of his party’s legislators.
In a month we will see where each opposition party is headed. Surely even Juan Schiaretti return to the field because, in this fragmented scenario, that 7% that knew how to represent at the national level also takes on a specific weight.
Francos’ balancing work is very good and the majority of the provinces agree that it should make a radical change of course in the regulations and mentality of the country. In this sense, the omens for the signing of the May Pact and the direction of the government are good, since the minister says on loudspeaker “If it is signed or it is signed, there will be an agreement with those who want to join”, Although it remains to be seen what the president’s statements and his willingness to tension with the provinces will turn out, with each new statement and provocation that follows, politicians and citizens begin to realize that They are nothing more than pure foam and that what matters is what can be done despite all that.
Nobody is born king [con la corona en la cabeza y el cetro en la mano] y no one can be king by himself or reign without a people, and that on the contrary the people can be a people by themselves, and that it is prior to the king in time, it is a very certain thing that all kings were first appointed by the people. Stephanus Junius Brutus.
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