Within 48 hours, the Ministry of Economy will pay US$ 1,360 million to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is preparing to receive a technical mission from the organization that will be key to achieving a disbursement that will allow it to strengthen the Central Bank’s reserves. , despite the questions received by the Kirchnerist wing of the ruling coalition.
On Monday, Argentina canceled US$ 674 million, accumulating payments of US$ 2,538 million in January. And this Tuesday, another US$ 691 million must be transferred to the agency, the only obligation of the month with the agency, corresponding to the current Extended Facilities agreement.
The payments scheduled for 2023 with the IMF amount to US$20,000 million, with disbursements that will leave a negative net balance of US$3,500 million, reversing the result of 2022 when the country obtained US$5,000 in favor.
In an interview he gave over the weekend, Deputy Máximo Kirchner said that the agreement with the IMF should be renegotiated because under the current terms it is an obstacle to the country’s development, due to the payments that must be made starting next year. coming.
Máximo Kirchner moved away from the leadership of the block of deputies of the Lower House when the Frente de Todos supported the agreement that the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, had negotiated.
This restructuring maintains the maturities of the stand-by granted to Mauricio Macri in 2018 and compensates them with new disbursements for similar figures, extending the payment terms. In order for these transfers to be effective, quarterly objectives must be met, which in turn are subject to audits.
One of these inspections is scheduled for the next few days and corresponds to the goals set for December 31, 2022. Unilaterally, the national government announced that the most important parameters are over fulfilled.
The Ministry of Economy assured that the reserve accumulation target was US$ 400 million above the commitment, while the fiscal deficit was 2.4% of GDP against 2.5%.
Then there are objectives that both the Government and the IMF understand that there are ways to “get around”, such as the limit of monetary issue (instead of assistance to the Treasury, alternatives such as the soybean dollar or the Leliqs themselves are sought) and the volume of floating debt that also has a direct impact on the primary deficit.
After the visit, the technical mission must issue a report advising the Agency’s Board of Directors to approve the audit and then the “Board” meets for the final guarantee, which in this case will result in a direct disbursement of US$ 5.4 billion.
This shift will be key for the Central Bank’s reserves to support the daily bleeding while waiting for the liquidation of the harvest. By that time, another of the points on which the IMF should “look to the side” will be the offer of a “soybean dollar 3″ to encourage producers to liquidate.
In all its previous reports, the agency objected, but at the same time it allowed the multiple exchange rates that exist in the Argentine economy to permeate.
Máximo Kirchner’s statements once again shake the official party, but at the same time they can help Massa in his goal of getting some kind of additional help from the IMF to meet the 2023 goals.
For several months, the minister has put on the negotiating table with the IMF the cost that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in for the country.
The Argentine government says that this cost amounts to US$ 5.4 billion, while for the IMF it is US$ 3.2 billion. Massa assured that he does not want to modify the current agreement due to this situation, but demands that the central countries take charge and recognize it with additional funds.
The possibility of reversing the surtax that Argentina is paying has fallen because the credit to Macri was 10 times greater than the quota he could take, the economic team only has to put that damage on the negotiating table to obtain some extra disbursement or some goal relaxation form.
It should be remembered that by 2023 the Central Bank’s reserves must increase by US$ 4,000 million and the primary fiscal deficit must be reduced to 1.9%, which will require additional adjustments in the midst of a demanding election year.