The very tense situation that the electrical system is about to experience this winter is not a short-term problem. It is a lasting problem that will continue over time. The figures published this Tuesday, September 13 by EDF confirm this: in 2024, nuclear production will be between 315 and 345 TWh, estimates the electrician. “This is the level of a Covid year », points out Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting. In 2020, a year marked by strict two-month confinement, French nuclear electricity production had, in fact, collapsed to 335.4 TWh, falling by 11.6% (44 TWh) compared to 2019.. « His lowest level since 1993 »had then underlined RTE, the manager of the electricity transmission network.
In 2024, electricity production should therefore be slightly higher than that expected for 2023, currently estimated at between 300 and 330 TWh, itself slightly higher than that of 2022, which should stand at only 285 TWh, a “real disaster », selon Nicolas Goldberg.
« From 2015, we knew that the situation was going to be tense »
« These figures show that the electricity crisis will last until 2024, at least, and it is worrying, love the expert Of the 2015, we knew that the situation was going to be tense in the nuclear power plant at this time due to the ten-year inspections [arrêt de plusieurs mois de la production d’un réacteur, qui a lieu tous les dix ans, et pendant lequel un examen de sûreté est réalisé en profondeur. Les quatrièmes visites décennales (VD4), qui concernent en ce moment les plus vieux réacteurs du parc, ceux de 900 MW, comptent 20.000 activités de maintenance et de contrôles et visent à faire tendre le niveau de sûreté de ces réacteurs vers celui des EPR, ndlr], but we had no idea of the depth of this crisis »he concedes.
Regarding the production estimate for 2024, EDF specifies “that the associated maintenance schedule is being consolidated ». For the time being, we do not yet know the magnitude of the various factors that will affect the availability of the nuclear fleet in 2024. « What will be the proportion of maintenance operations and ten-year inspections and that of corrosion problems? »s’interroge Nicolas Goldberg.
Seven ten-year inspections planned for 2024
« The 2024 nuclear production estimate is explained by a dense industrial program and the continued implementation of the nuclear reactor control program in the context of the stress corrosion phenomenon. »indicates, for its part EDF, without giving further details.
At the end of 2021, the electrician discovered a problem of stress corrosion, in series, which results in microcracks on steel pipes, connected to the main primary circuit which surrounds the reactor. According to the investigations carried out by EDF, 12 reactors are affected or potentially affected by this phenomenon and are therefore currently shut down. (While 17 others are currently shut down for maintenance). If this phenomenon continues until 2024, maintenance shutdowns could therefore be longer in order to carry out additional checks.
In addition, in 2024, seven ten-yearly outages are planned: two concerning the 1300 MW reactors of Penly 2 and Golfech 2, and five fourth ten-yearly outages for the 900 MW reactors of Blayais 3, Cruas 3, Dampierre 4, Gravelines 4, Tricastin 4.
« In 2024, we will therefore still be in a tense situation [sur le plan de la sécurité d’approvisionnement électrique, ndlr]. It will be necessary to apply eco-gestures, but also the principles of sobriety with the establishment of the right tariff signals and to apply them over time because it is a lasting problem. », insists Nicolas Goldberg.
Declining production since 2018
Some elements could nevertheless relieve the French electricity system. On the production side, the Saint-Nazaire offshore wind farm, made up of 80 turbines, will be fully operational, with 100% commissioning scheduled for the end of 2022. It is also to be hoped that the law on the acceleration renewable energies, which is soon to be presented to the Council of Ministers, has produced its first effects.
Then, France should be able to import more electricity thanks to the establishment of a new interconnection between France and Italy via the Fréjus tunnel. This should be fully operational in the coming months. On the other hand, the results related to energy efficiency work will probably not yet be there.
Since 2018, French nuclear production has continued to decline. Only the year 2021 was marked by a fragile upturn. The French nuclear power fleet thus produced 393.2 TWh in 2018, 379.5 TWh in 2019, 335.4 TWh in 2020 and 360.7 TWh in 2021. We have to go back to 2015 to obtain a volume greater than 400 TWh, a level considered as « normal » by all the experts in the sector. And for good reason, from 2002 to 2015, electricity production from the atom has always been greater than 400 TWh, except in 2009.