Italy’s political landscape is shifting faster than expected, with the latest polls showing the Lega slipping to 7%—just ahead of Forza Italia leader Silvio Berlusconi’s new party, Forza Italia-Vannacci, at 5.6%, according to a SWG poll published June 27. Meanwhile, Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), led by Giorgia Meloni, remains the dominant force at 28%, though its lead has narrowed slightly from earlier projections. What’s driving this volatility? And what could it mean for Italy’s next government?
Why the Lega’s Slide Matters More Than the Numbers Suggest
The 7% drop for Lega, once Italy’s second-most popular party, isn’t just a statistical blip—it’s a symptom of deeper fractures within the right-wing coalition. Matteo Salvini’s party, which surged to 34% in 2022, has been hemorrhaging support since its failed attempt to form a government with FdI last year. The latest poll, conducted by SWG and shared exclusively with Il Messaggero, shows the party trailing even Forza Italia-Vannacci, a splinter group led by former premier Silvio Berlusconi’s heir apparent, Antonio Tajani, and Paolo Vannacci, a longtime Berlusconian strategist.
Analysts say the shift reflects two key factors: Lega’s struggle to define a post-Meloni strategy and the resurgence of Berlusconi’s brand, which still carries weight among older, rural voters. “The Lega’s decline isn’t just about Salvini—it’s about the exhaustion of the ‘anti-establishment’ narrative after years in power,” says Prof. Gian Enrico Rusconi, a political scientist at Bocconi University. “Vannacci’s move is a direct challenge to Salvini’s leadership, and it’s working.”
“The right is fragmenting, but the left isn’t offering a clear alternative. That’s the real story here.”
How Forza Italia-Vannacci Is Rewriting the Rules
Forza Italia-Vannacci didn’t exist six months ago. Its emergence is a calculated gamble by Berlusconi’s inner circle to reclaim the center-right vote from Lega and FdI. The party’s 5.6% in the latest poll is modest but strategically placed—it’s enough to force negotiations if no single bloc secures a majority. “This isn’t just about Berlusconi’s legacy; it’s about controlling the next government’s agenda,” says Marco Valbruzzi, a political analyst at LAVOCE.info.
The party’s rise also exposes a generational divide. While Lega appeals to younger, urban voters with its populist rhetoric, Forza Italia-Vannacci targets older, economically conservative Italians who still associate Berlusconi’s name with stability. “The 5.6% isn’t enough to win, but it’s enough to be a kingmaker,” Valbruzzi adds. “And in Italian politics, that’s often more valuable than outright victory.”
FdI’s Lead Holds—but the Pressure Is On
Fratelli d’Italia remains the undisputed leader at 28%, but its margin has shrunk from earlier highs of 32%. The party’s challenge now is whether it can consolidate its base or if the right’s fragmentation will force it into uneasy alliances. “Meloni’s strategy has always been to outflank the left, but if the right keeps splitting, she’ll have to choose between purity and pragmatism,” says Rusconi.
Historically, FdI has thrived on polarization, but the latest polls suggest even its core voters are growing restless. A 2025 ISTAT survey found that 42% of Meloni’s supporters are open to shifting to Lega or Forza Italia if they perceive FdI as too rigid. The party’s ability to hold onto those voters will determine whether it can govern alone—or if Italy is heading for another hung parliament.
What Happens Next: Three Possible Scenarios
The next move will likely come from Meloni, who has three options:
- Option 1: The Grand Coalition—FdI reaches out to PD (Democratic Party) and Italia Viva to form a center-right-left majority, despite ideological clashes.
- Option 2: The Right-Wing Alliance—FdI cuts a deal with Lega and Forza Italia-Vannacci, but only if Salvini and Vannacci agree to share power—a tall order given their mutual distrust.
- Option 3: Early Elections—If no bloc can secure a majority, Italy could face another snap election, prolonging political uncertainty.
“Meloni knows she can’t afford to alienate her base, but she also can’t ignore the math,” says Valbruzzi. “The question is whether she’ll bet on stability or gamble on a new coalition.”
The Bigger Picture: Why Italy’s Politics Are in Turmoil
Italy’s political instability isn’t new, but the current fragmentation is unprecedented. Since 2018, the country has had three different governments, each collapsing under coalition tensions. The latest polls suggest this cycle may continue unless a clear majority emerges.
Economically, the stakes are high. Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 140%, and the European Commission has warned that further delays in fiscal reforms could trigger sanctions. “The markets are watching closely,” says Rusconi. “If Italy can’t form a stable government, investors will pull back—and that’s bad news for all Italians.”
Culturally, the shift reflects a broader disillusionment with traditional parties. Younger voters, who make up 30% of the electorate, are increasingly turning to Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S), which sits at 12% in the latest polls. “The system is broken, and people are looking for alternatives,” says Valbruzzi. “Until someone offers a real solution, the chaos will continue.”
The Takeaway: What This Means for You
Italy’s political future hangs in the balance. If FdI can hold its lead and secure a coalition, stability may return—but only if the right’s factions can bury their differences. If not, the country could be headed for another round of elections, prolonging economic uncertainty and political gridlock.
The real question isn’t just about who wins the next election—it’s about whether Italy’s political class can finally break the cycle of instability. For now, the answer remains unclear. One thing is certain: the next few weeks will be decisive.
What do you think—will Meloni’s FdI hold together, or is Italy’s right-wing coalition doomed to collapse? Drop your take in the comments.
