For Emmanuel Macron, a campaign adorned with uncertainties

Emmanuel Macron is a child of social networks. Where his predecessors lived to the sovereign rhythm of television, the Head of State composes with the frantic pace of the anecdote which chases away information, of the mood which varies from hour to hour. He himself, like those close to him, constantly monitors and adapts to fluctuations in opinion. So that everything seems messy when the tenant of the Elysée is about to launch his campaign for a possible second term.

The amendments have followed one another for several weeks, whether it is about the date of his candidacy, the strategy that will drive him between now and the presidential election of April 10 and 24, or, more importantly, the underlying reason which pushes him to stand for French suffrage. The President of the Republic is expected to be in contact with them, in Creuse and Haute-Vienne, Monday 24 and Tuesday 25 January, during a warm-up trip.

Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron visit Chanel's Métiers d'Art workshops at 19M, the building that houses around 600 craftsmen, in Paris, on January 20, 2022.

Before Christmas, there were many ministers, advisers or leaders of the majority to urge Emmanuel Macron to declare himself a candidate quickly. His position as outgoing president implied a “refresh time” of his image, pleaded these watchmakers of politics. The President of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand, very listened to by the Head of State, defended this line. Now, the Breton has converted to the virtues of patience. “The desire increases when the effect recedes”, slipped to the future candidate another of his fellow travelers, paraphrasing Corneille. Appear “until the last quarter of an hour” at the helm of the country is supposed to represent an advantage against competitors sent back to their political maneuvers.

President Emmanuel Macron reviews the troops before presenting his wishes to the military forces, at the Oberhoffen camp, in Haguenau (Bas-Rhin), January 19, 2022.

“The windows of fire are moving”

In theory, Emmanuel Macron’s speech in the European Parliament on January 19, to inaugurate the French presidency of the Council of the European Union (PFUE), was to represent the last hurdle to cross before being able to launch. But the Elysée has erected a new one by affirming that it is impossible to declare oneself as long as the Omicron wave has not ebbed. With the Covid-19 epidemic, “windows of fire are moving”, agrees a faithful of the head of state. The timetable for lifting the restrictions announced by the Prime Minister, Jean Castex, with appointments on February 2 and 16, nevertheless marks the way.

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According to a relative, it now seems certain that Emmanuel Macron will declare himself between 1is and February 20 (the end of February option has a running time). Enough to leave enough time for his entourage to collect the sponsorships of elected officials necessary for the filing of his candidacy – the deadline is set for March 4.

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