China has recently conducted a strategic deduction on the possible sanctions against Taiwan. It has previously convened domestic and foreign banks to consult the countermeasures of financial sanctions. Recently, the China International Finance 30 Forum and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also hosted an internal seminar focusing on the Ukraine-Russian war. Gao Yusheng, the former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine who attended the meeting, actually looked down on Russia “against the wind”, pointing out that the Russian army has lost all of its resources in the fields of economy, military, science and technology, politics, diplomacy, intelligence and other fields, and its economic and financial resources cannot support a war that costs hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Russian army’s defeat has already been revealed, and the Russian President Vladimir Putin has been called “duplicitous and fattening”. The relevant remarks were instantly blocked by the entire Chinese network.
The China International Finance 30 Forum and the International Studies Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently held an internal seminar via video, focusing on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on China and the global situation. Gao Yusheng, who was sent by the Beijing authorities to Ukraine from 2005 to 2007, was invited to speak. Gao Yusheng said at the seminar that when and how the Ukrainian-Russian war will end is no longer up to Russia; in fact, Russia “has already lost.” He predicts that Russia will be expelled from some important international organizations, and there will be a new wave of “de-Russification” in the former Soviet Union.
Gao Yusheng’s speech is very different from China’s official pro-Russian stance. He bluntly said that the so-called Russian revival under Putin’s leadership is a “false proposition that does not exist”; Russia has never truly recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet countries. , “frequent violations of their territories and sovereignty”, the greatest threat to peace, security and stability in the Eurasian region. After the video of his speech was exposed on the Chinese Internet, it was deleted immediately, but the content of the speech allegedly edited by Gao Yusheng himself can still be found on the Hong Kong “Phoenix Network”.
Gao Yusheng is a retired career diplomat who, in addition to Ukraine, served as ambassadors to former Soviet states such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. He was invited by units within the system to share his views, but even the content of his revised speech did not conform to the “main theme”, which revealed that there are different opinions within the CCP on how to handle relations with Russia and Putin. On the other hand, Gao Yusheng’s speech also showed that China does not agree with Russia regarding Russia’s view of the former Soviet Union, which covers the Far East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe, as Russia’s “exclusive” sphere of influence.
Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine on February 24 did not end within a week as many in the world expected. China, which has special strategic interests in both Russia and Ukraine, has attracted much attention. Gao Yusheng pointed out that Russia has become increasingly passive on the battlefield and has shown signs of failure. He analyzed that the main reasons for Russia’s failure include the continuous decline of Russia in the fields of economy, military, science and technology, politics, and society after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which is related to the mistakes of the ruling group’s domestic and foreign policies. Russia has not been able to fight Ukraine quickly, but Russia’s economic power is far from commensurate with its so-called “military superpower” status, and the delay in the war has created a heavy burden.
Gao Yusheng went on to point out that modern warfare is bound to be a “hybrid war”, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence and other fields, and Russia “has already lost” in all fields, and it is only a matter of time before it is finally defeated. question. However, it cannot be ruled out that the war may expand and escalate, because the goals of the parties are diametrically opposed and diametrically opposed. Ensuring the ownership of Crimea and the effective occupation of eastern Ukraine is clearly the bottom line for Russia, and Ukraine will not make concessions to Russia on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity. After the outbreak of the war, Ukraine, regardless of party, region, or class, united to resist Russia and save the country. Russia can be said to have “completely lost Ukraine.”
Gao Yusheng emphasized that Russia’s foreign policy is “a mixture of the former Soviet Union and the Tsarist Empire.” The core and primary direction of the Putin regime’s foreign policy is to “see the former Soviet Union as its exclusive sphere of influence.” “Restore” mechanism to restore the empire. To achieve this goal, Russia “did its words and reneged on its promises” and never truly recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states, but the Ukrainian-Russian war drastically changed this situation. After Russia annexed Crimea and occupied eastern Ukraine in 2014, anti-Russian sentiment rose within Ukraine, with most Ukrainians “not only in the west, but also in the east” supporting EU and NATO membership.
Gao Yusheng mentioned that the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union have continued to increase their support for Ukraine. 41 The meeting of defense ministers will internationalize and institutionalize Ukrainian military aid. Various phenomena show that the war will be fought until “Russia is defeated and punished”. At the same time, with the exception of Belarus, all the former Soviet Union countries refused to support Russia. After the defeat, Russia will completely lose the possibility of restoring its empire.
In addition, Gao Yusheng predicted that Russia may be expelled from some important international organizations, and its international status will be significantly reduced. If Russia still has a sphere of influence after the war, Ukraine will break away from Russia’s sphere of influence and become a member of the European family; other ex-Soviet countries may experience a new wave of going to Russia to varying degrees. The United States and other Western countries will vigorously push for substantive reform of the United Nations and other important international organizations, and if the reform is blocked “may also start over.” Whether it is reform or starting anew, it is possible to use the ideology of democracy and freedom as the standard to exclude countries such as Russia.