2023-08-26 21:58:07
With their decision to expel the French ambassador from Niger, the putschists who seized power a month ago are in the process of announcing their rejection of any negotiated solutions, while the “ECOWAS” group is still waving military intervention.
The military council in Niger, which has been holding the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum since July 26, demanded, on Friday, the French ambassador in Niamey, to leave the country within a maximum period of 48 hours, according to Agence France-Presse, France Press.
The US State Department denies the authenticity of messages claiming that Niger has requested the departure of American diplomats
A US State Department spokesperson denied to Al-Hurra, on Friday, the authenticity of the messages that were circulated regarding a request submitted by Niger for some US diplomats to leave the country.
After the overthrow of the president who was elected in 2021, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced, on August 10, its intention to deploy a force to “restore constitutional order in Niger” without knowing the details of such an operation and its date.
This situation may indicate a dead end, according to the head of the French Institute for Strategic Analysis, François Gerry, who confirmed that the coup in Niger will have dire consequences if the scene continues as it is now.
In contact with Al-Hurra website, Jerry stressed that the countries that hinted at military intervention, which France supported, “did as well when they saw that the putschists did not want to hear the voice of reason.”
Jerry pointed out that during the same day that the “new leadership” in Niger announced its desire to leave France’s ambassador there, it allowed Mali and Burkina Faso to intervene militarily in their soil if necessary, saying, “This is an explicit sign that they do not want to negotiate.”
Mali and Burkina Faso strongly oppose any military intervention in Niger.
But Niger’s foreign ministry statement, announcing its invitation to the ambassador to leave, justified its decision by the fact that Paris “refused to respond to its invitation for an interview.”
Paris rejected the Nigerien ministry’s request, saying that “the putschists have no eligibility” to make such a request.
“open war”
The analyst specializing in African affairs, Mohamed Turchi, believes that the invitation made by the military authorities in Niger to France “is part of the pressure it is exerting on Paris in light of its decisions to suspend all contracts with it, starting next month.
In an interview with Al-Hurra website, Turshin stressed that the putschists’ attempt to put pressure on Paris came primarily because the latter is a staunch supporter of the military intervention of the West African Group of States led by Nigeria.
But Jerry confirms, for his part, that Paris was not the one who called for military intervention, indicating that it only supported the “free decision of ECOWAS” on the grounds that this would be a final solution to restore legitimacy.
Turshin goes back to saying that this situation will open the door wide to several scenarios, perhaps the most important of which is “an open war between the two parties,” according to his description.
He added, “If the military council succeeds in consolidating its rule and curtailing France’s role, the latter will try as much as it can to prevent that,” which refers to multiple scenarios, but they all flow into the military confrontation.
On Friday, Molly Fee, the top US diplomat for sub-Saharan Africa, headed to the west of the continent in a new diplomatic effort to resolve the month-long crisis in Niger.
Molly will visit Nigeria, Ghana and Chad.
And the US State Department said in a statement, yesterday, that during its tour, Vi will address “the common goals of preserving Niger’s hard-won democracy and achieving the immediate release of President Bazoum, his family, and members of his government who are unjustly detained.”
She added that she would also hold consultations with senior officials in Benin, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Togo, all members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
“A powder keg”
François Guerre says in this regard that his country never threatened Niamey with military intervention, but rather tried to approach the putschists to discuss grounds of agreement, but they rejected all diplomatic endeavors, and according to him, it is also likely that the situation will get worse if they continue in this position.
“The more diplomacy declines, the greater the chances of wars breaking out,” he said.
Then he continued, “France has never said that it wants war against the putschists, but the expulsion of the ambassador will complicate the situation and strengthen the military option.”
Then he went on, “The government of Niger must shoulder its responsibility. I do not necessarily mean war here, but the consequences of this crisis situation are different.”
He added, “I mean that the solidarity between Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali means the solidarity of a group of putschists. This will turn the region into a powder keg.”
Turshin, for his part, believes that the situation in the region as a whole has reached a point of no return, and this indicates an uncertain future that will lead to more violence, saying, “The complexity will increase, and the disputes will continue for long periods,” indicating that France will employ military solutions to avoid that, “which will constitute a new focus of conflict.” indispensable.
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