Pending the nature of the talks that dealt with the situation in Lebanon during the tour that was described as historic by US President Joe Biden and his loose team from security to diplomacy and energy, the situation can be described as swinging between security and semi-political stability, which is required internationally and regionally, and is implemented locally, and serious fears of re-establishing The facts, from the angle of the volume of developments. And the nature of the rolling agendas, which are needed by the comprehensive confrontation that Biden personally announced, in a brief press conference, which was held after talks at the Peace Palace in Jeddah between King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, in which his “great” country will not let the It is open to China and the Russian Federation to fill the void in the Middle East.
From three angles, it is possible to understand the approach that took place for the Lebanese reality: 1 – Energy security, which means the freedom of smooth movement of ships and ships that cross straits and oceans, towards Europe to transport oil, as well as gas pipelines that Europeans urgently need to address the shortage or interruption In Russian gas supplies, in light of French President Emmanuel Macron’s hints that his country may completely dispense with Russian gas.
And within Lebanon’s energy security, the continuation of the American contribution in terms of facilitating maritime negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, in order to reach a solution, which the American mediator and official in the American energy file Amos Hochstein described as “possible.” Returning to the negotiation meetings in Naqoura, or setting a date not too long ago, would cool the atmosphere and actually make it possible to bypass the danger coming from the sea, through the disputed Karish field with Lebanon, or beyond this field, according to scenarios drawn up by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah. God, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in his last speech on the occasion of the 16th anniversary of the July 2006 war.
In this sense, eliminating the risk of a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel, fearing that it will be destructive and lightning, becomes at the center of American and European, and even Arab and regional concerns, in general.
2- The growing military power of Hezbollah, in terms of owning marches and precision missiles, which is an extension of the Iranian influence that is required to limit its expansion or encircle it, whether in Lebanon, Gaza or the West Bank and the 1948 territories. This does not include Hezbollah, but also The armed factions and the Palestinian resistance that revolve in the Iranian orbit, or at least, are nourished by Tehran’s missile weapons and military technology.
From this angle, and fearing that any upcoming war will be a comprehensive confrontation war that goes beyond land to sea and perhaps to the air, the “factions” of an Iranian character will participate simultaneously, in the manner of the “comprehensive axes wars”.
3 – Awaiting accurate information, the Arab, regional and international interest is dealing, in a way that is not in it, with the collapsed situation in Lebanon and its repercussions on internal balances, and its regional and international extensions, up to the situation in Syria, and what may result from re-influencing the reciprocal aspects of the return The displaced Syrians, the passing of the gas pipeline, or the use of Jordanian electricity, about which information has been completely extinguished, through the media, communications, or anything else.
According to relevant sources, pumping Egyptian gas through the Arab line that passes from Syria to Deir Ammar would send a serious message that the United States is interested in saving the energy sector in Lebanon, which is threatened by a complete halt and threatens the bonds of economic unity and production. To the Electricité du Liban, which is one of the signs of the unity of the Lebanese state.
And if there appears to be a serious external interest in helping Lebanon to curb the terrible collapse that hits all aspects of life, from food to medicine, to oil, energy and gas, as well as work, in a forced strike for nearly a month, threatening with it the lives of thousands of working and retired employees from Military and civilians.. At the very least, this means paying attention to two issues: The first is urgent and requires actual assistance in overcoming the obstacles that prevent the formation of a new government, in the remainder of President Michel Aoun’s rule, regardless of the accounts of the Lebanese gangs, and what is related to this group or that. .
The indicator, which reflects the reality of actions, not words or expressions of intentions, is what may result from the third meeting in Baabda Palace today or tomorrow between the President of the Republic and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, who returns this evening or tomorrow to Beirut from a family vacation, which he spent abroad. On the occasion of Eid Al-Adha..
From a clear point of view, moving in a positive direction towards the government means that the American movement in the region did not take Lebanon out of its calculations, but rather kept it within a recovery process while linking a conflict with the Iranian side, through the active French channel..
2- The second issue is related to conducting negotiations on the election of a new president of the republic, in which specifications that are not rejected by the influential parties intersect, whether in Washington, Riyadh or Cairo, all the way to Paris, Tehran, and perhaps Moscow..
In any case, the Lebanese are spending their summer vacation from now until August 21, waiting for the agendas to approach from pumping Israeli gas to Europe to appointing the first sessions to elect within the constitutional deadline for a new president of the republic!