Global carbon emissions ticked down by 0.4% in 2026 to 42.2 billion tons, driven largely by oil shocks from the Iran war rather than deliberate climate policies, according to a new study from the Global Carbon Project.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Alter Global Energy Balance
The conflict in Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a critical petroleum transport route and driving up global fuel prices. Researchers calculating the yearly figures for the U.N. climate negotiations in Antalya, Turkey, noted that oil emissions fell nearly 2% while natural gas dropped 0.3%. Coal consumption moved in the opposite direction, ticking up 0.6% over the same period.
Fossil Fuel Emissions Contracted Slightly in 2026
- Global fossil fuel emissions contracted slightly to 42.2 billion tons in 2026, marking only the third annual drop of the 21st century.
- The contraction was fueled by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz rather than a systematic transition to renewable energy sources.
- Despite lower fossil fuel output, overall emissions rose 1% due to accelerated land-use changes, deforestation, and human-caused peat fires.
| Fuel Type | Annual Change (%) |
|---|---|
| Oil | -2.0% |
| Natural Gas | -0.3% |
| Coal | +0.6% |
Study co-author Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway pointed out the anomaly in the data. “It’s downwards which sounds good, but this is largely driven by the war in Iran, what’s happened in the Strait of Hormuz,” Peters said, describing it as good news for the wrong reasons.
It’s very abstract to think about the magnitude of stuff we throw in the atmosphere every year, but it’s a ginormous number,
Peters added.
Historical precedent shows similar temporary dips occurred only during the 2009 global recession and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. In both prior instances, global emissions rebounded quickly once economic activity resumed. Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Germany’s NewClimate Institute, stated that permanent shifts are happening,
leading him to believe that the global peak of carbon emissions is near or here.
Mohamed Adow, director of the environmental group Power Shift Africa, remarked in an email that the world is still pumping more than a thousand metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every second.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Earlier coverage: Iran War and Renewable Growth Drive Slight Drop in Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
