Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline 0.4% in 2026, driven by an oil price shock from the war in Iran and the expansion of renewable energy, according to a report published as nations meet at the UN’s COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkiye.
The projected drop marks the first annual decline since pandemic lockdowns paralyzed global trade in 2020. However, researchers warn that the reduction is largely a temporary reaction to geopolitical energy constraints rather than a permanent structural shift in global consumption.
Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Fall Slightly This Year
- Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to reach 38.2 billion tonnes this year, falling 0.4% compared to last year.
- The contraction is primarily tied to a 1.9% drop in oil-related emissions following supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Scientists stress that geopolitical shocks offer no sustainable climate solution, noting that emissions typically rebound once energy tensions ease.
Geopolitical Energy Shock
The conflict in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted international crude flows, causing soaring energy prices that forced consumers and industries to curtail consumption. According to data from the Global Carbon Budget, oil-related emissions are projected to drop this year. Researchers emphasized that this contraction represents a short-term response to supply constraints rather than permanent decarbonization.
Corinne Le Quere, a climate change science professor at the University of East Anglia, noted in a media briefing that emissions traditionally rebound when economies recover from shocks such as pandemics or financial crises. A similar rebound remains likely once current oil tensions dissipate.
“The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies,” said Friedlingstein, who led the study published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
Renewable Energy Acceleration
Alongside geopolitical disruptions, the aggressive deployment of clean energy technologies has altered the trajectory of global emissions.
Without the emissions avoided by electric vehicles and renewable infrastructure, global CO2 emissions would have grown by an average of 1.9% annually between 2019 and 2025, driven by economic growth and changes in carbon intensity.
Persistent Carbon Pressures
Gas emissions are set to fall 0.3% while those from coal use will rise 0.6%, according to the Global Carbon Budget report.
| Emission Source | Projected 2026 Change |
|---|---|
| Total Fossil CO2 | -0.4% |
| Oil Emissions | -1.9% |
| Gas Emissions | -0.3% |
| Coal Emissions | +0.6% |
Total CO2 emissions are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes from 42.8 billion tonnes last year, driven by increases in land-use change and deforestation. Researchers attributed the land-use increase partly to peat fires and forest degradation in southeast Asia under drier conditions linked to an exceptionally strong El Nino pattern.
Pathways Beyond the Overshoot
Delegates gathered at COP31 in Antalya are confronting mounting evidence that long-term warming targets are slipping out of reach. Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation program, reported that August 2026 tied with July 2023 as the warmest month ever recorded.
Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, stated that a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.
“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter in Britain.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Earlier coverage: Fossil Fuel Emissions Projected to Fall 0.4% Amid Iran War Disruptions
