China made it a point of honor. Unlike Japan, which had not admitted any visitors to the Tokyo Olympics during the summer of 2021, the Chinese would be able to attend the Winter Olympics which take place in Beijing from February 4 to 20. Only foreigners would be deprived of it. A logical decision since, thanks to its zero Covid policy, China estimated that it had defeated the epidemic in September 2020 when the rest of the world was unable to get rid of it.
This scenario has been shattered. On January 17, the Beijing 2022 Olympic Committee announced that there would ultimately be no ticket sales. Only previously “invited” Chinese spectators will be able to attend. How many ? Under what conditions? Mystery.
This last minute reversal proves it: the celebration with great fanfare of the “victory” against Covid-19 in September 2020 was premature. Admittedly, with only 4,634 victims of Covid-19 recorded by the authorities since January 2020, including only 2 deaths since April 2020, China is doing better than the rest of the world in terms of mortality. On Wednesday January 19, the country counted only 53 new locally transmitted cases.
Some foreign experts even consider “statistically outlying” such low numbers. In fact, in terms of transparency, China has some progress to make. Lou Jiwei, a former finance minister, even complained in December that there was no “not enough data to show the negative side” things.
Nevertheless in China, no one really thinks that the official figures are very much undervalued. If the hospitals were overwhelmed, it would be known. Those who judge these figures to be very low doubtless underestimate the systematism with which the triptych “test, trace, isolate” is implemented. Two years after the start of confinement in Wuhan, this is precisely where the shoe pinches. “We are coming to the end of a cycle but no one knows yet what will follow it” summarizes a Western diplomat.
Almost cut off from the rest of the world
This triptych is expensive: municipalities must now have millions of tests available. A city of less than 2 million inhabitants has two days to test the entire population at the slightest alert. Three days for the older ones. Isolation also has a cost. Psychological and economic. Since March 2020, China has been virtually cut off from the rest of the world. Including from Hong Kong. International air traffic has been reduced by 98% and as airlines are sanctioned when cases of Covid-19 are discovered on board planes entering China, the few flights still scheduled are often canceled. Due to lockdowns, industrial production lines are often interrupted.
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