Experts are optimistic that the target inflation rate of 2% will be reached by the end of 2023, but the increase in the cost of living is regaining some stability.
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This is the opinion of the analysis Simon Brière, chief strategist at RJ O’Brien, an opinion he shared at the microphone of Philippe-Vincent Foisy on Thursday, the day after the Bank of Canada’s announcement, which leaves the policy rate at 4.5%.
This break did not surprise Mr. Brière, invited to comment on the situation on QUB radio on Thursday. “We expected this break, 4.5%. The watchword, which the Bank told us yesterday: “it’s not for tomorrow that the rates will go down”, “he said.
The specialist also found it very optimistic that economists envisage a return to 2% by the end of 2023, targeting the end of 2024 instead.
“Inflation is starting to be under control, we are aiming for 3% perhaps this summer, but we are still very, very far from the 2% target,” he said. “It’s very optimistic and it goes squarely against what Mr. MackLem was saying yesterday,” he added.
There are still positive signs to note for Mr. Brière.
“There are certain signs which are interesting in terms of inflation, it is coming down a little bit, we are slowly finding this stability in terms of the increase in the cost of living, but we are still aiming for this 2% inflation. »
It is therefore time for observation now, which will determine the future of rates.
“We’re going to want to look at what’s happening in the economy to say to ourselves: ‘When are we going to start maybe wanting to bring them back down? [les taux] or increase them, because the door is still open to increase rates, if necessary,” he explained.