Labour has retained the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary seat in a decisive by-election, with Sagal Abdi-Wali defeating Green Party leader Zack Polanski to secure 45 per cent of the vote following the departure of former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer.
How the Numbers Shaped the Contest
Sagal Abdi-Wali secured 12,292 votes, representing 45 per cent of the total ballots cast, while Zack Polanski finished in second place with 8,928 votes, or 33 per cent. This resulted in a majority of 3,364 votes, or 12.4 per cent, for Labour. While the outcome preserved the governing party’s hold on the constituency, it marked Labour’s lowest majority in the seat since its creation in 1983, driven by a 13 per cent swing toward the Green Party.
Voter turnout dropped compared to the 2024 general election, where turnout sat at approximately 54 per cent. Conservative candidate Ewan Cameron finished third with 1,922 votes (7.06 per cent), followed by Peter Newman of Reform UK with 1,612 votes (5.92 per cent), and Patrick Stillman of the Liberal Democrats with 924 votes (3.40 per cent).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sagal Abdi-Wali | Labour | 12,292 | 45.17% |
| Zack Polanski | Green Party | 8,928 | 32.81% |
| Ewan Cameron | Conservative | 1,922 | 7.06% |
| Peter Newman | Reform UK | 1,612 | 5.92% |
| Patrick Stillman | Liberal Democrats | 924 | 3.40% |
Demographics and Pre-Election Expectations
Analysts pointed out that Holborn and St Pancras presented fertile ground for the Green Party. The constituency is more than 20 per cent Muslim—a demographic among which the Greens hold notable favourability—and features a younger population than most UK seats. In local elections held in May, a combined Green and pro-Gaza set of candidates came close to beating Labour.
Britain Predicts had projected that Labour would hold the seat by five points, but the party ultimately held it by 12 points. Voters were squeezed. Voters rallied. And Labour benefitted.
Victory Speeches and Future Strategy
In her victory speech, Abdi-Wali addressed the constituency after coming to the United Kingdom as a child refugee from Somalia in the 1990s. She spoke out against “those who seek to divide us,” in a possible response to Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf suggesting she was not British as she campaigned for the seat. Abdi-Wali stated that she hoped her election would show others who look like her that they belong, emphasizing her commitment to bringing Thames Water into public ownership, tackling rough sleeping, and creating youth opportunities.
Despite missing out on the seat, Polanski defended his leadership and confirmed he has no intention of stepping down. He described the campaign as an invaluable opportunity to champion Green Party values, including rent controls, the climate crisis, and the nationalisation of Thames Water. A Green Party spokesperson added that the result established a strong foundation for future contests, noting it stands as the party’s second-strongest by-election result by vote share, following Hannah Spencer’s victory in Gorton and Denton in February.
