Bank Al-Maghrib projects Morocco’s official reserve assets will reach 502.8 billion dirhams, exceeding 55.65 billion dollars, by the end of 2026. This growth persists despite a widening trade deficit and rising energy import costs, supported by strong performance in automotive exports, tourism receipts, and worker remittances.
The Bottom Line
- Reserve Trajectory: Official reserves reached 497.98 billion dirhams at the end of July 2026, marking a 22.7% increase year-on-year, on track to surpass 55.65 billion dollars by year-end.
- Current Account Pressures: The current account deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP in 2026, driven by a 28.4% surge in the energy bill and higher capital goods imports.
- External Buffers: Surging service sector surpluses, led by a 13.4% rise in travel receipts and an 8.1% increase in remittances from Morocans living abroad, offset merchandise trade imbalances.
Deconstructing the 2026 Reserve Expansion
As the third quarter draws to a close, Morocco’s central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, maintains a pragmatic outlook on the kingdom’s external liquidity. Official reserve assets stood at 497.98 billion dirhams at the end of July 2026, registering a 22.7% expansion compared to the same period in 2025. Projections indicate these holdings will scale to 502.8 billion dirhams by December 2026 before climbing further to 515.3 billion dirhams—roughly 57 billion dollars—by the end of 2027.
Here is the math: these reserves secure approximately five and a half months of imports for goods and services. But the balance sheet tells a more complex story, as external trade remains exposed to pronounced structural pressures that are widening the current account deficit from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026.
Energy Import Pressures and Capital Goods Expansion
The widening current account deficit stems directly from a heavier import bill. Bank Al-Maghrib projects the national energy bill will climb 28.4% to reach 138.1 billion dirhams in 2026, before contracting to 116 billion dirhams in 2027. Simultaneously, raw material purchases are slated for a 53.4% increase over the course of the year.
Trade data through July 2026 captures this dynamic clearly. The national trade deficit expanded 26.5% year-on-year to 244.69 billion dirhams, as imports advanced at double the pace of exports. Total goods imports exceeded 544 billion dirhams, a 16% upward shift. Purchases of finished capital equipment grew 20.8% to 133.20 billion dirhams, reflecting an aggressive domestic investment cycle.
Export Resilience Led by Automotive and Aerospace
Counterbalancing the import surge, merchandise exports reached 299.35 billion dirhams through July 2026, marking an 8.4% year-on-year increase. The automotive sector remains the primary engine of outbound shipments, generating 107.15 billion dirhams—a 14.9% gain driven by manufacturing and wiring assembly. Aerospace exports followed with a 19.7% increase to reach 20.57 billion dirhams.
Conversely, phosphates and derivatives contracted 7.8% to 50.95 billion dirhams during the first seven months of the year, hampered by softer international pricing for natural and chemical fertilizers. Overall export receipts are nonetheless projected to find firmer footing as automotive manufacturing expands toward a targeted 202.2 billion dirhams by 2027.
| Indicator | Volume (MMDH) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Official Reserve Assets (July) | 497.98 | +22.7% |
| Trade Deficit (July) | 244.69 | +26.5% |
| Automotive Exports (July) | 107.15 | +14.9% |
| Service Surplus (July) | 95.48 | N/A |
| Travel Receipts (July) | 79.01 | +13.4% |
| MRE Remittances (July) | 74.79 | +8.1% |
Services, Remittances, and Foreign Direct Investment as Shock Absorbers
While the merchandise trade ledger reflects deficits, the services account provides a vital cushion. Data from the Office des Changes shows service exports reached 193.38 billion dirhams through July, up 13.1%, against service imports of 97.90 billion dirhams. This dynamic generated a service balance surplus of 95.48 billion dirhams, compared to 84.34 billion dirhams a year earlier.
Travel receipts spearheaded this surplus, rising 13.4% to 79.01 billion dirhams. After accounting for travel expenditures of 19.92 billion dirhams, the net travel balance reached 59.09 billion dirhams, representing a 15.7% gain. Meanwhile, financial inflows from Morocans living abroad (MRE) contributed 74.79 billion dirhams, up 8.1% over the same seven-month period.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows also registered positive momentum. Gross FDI receipts rose 6.3% to 39.11 billion dirhams, while associated expenditures fell 47% to 9.64 billion dirhams. This drove net FDI inflows to 29.47 billion dirhams, compared to 18.59 billion dirhams at the close of July 2025. Bank Al-Maghrib anticipates total annual FDI inflows equivalent to 3.5% of GDP for 2026, which, alongside Treasury external financing, will ensure foreign exchange reserves remain strong through the medium term.
