New Zealand’s incumbent National-led coalition secured a preliminary, paper-thin majority of 67 seats in an expanded 131-member parliament following Saturday’s general election, leaving the country facing weeks of political limbo as uncounted special ballots threaten to upend the outcome.
Preliminary results released by the Electoral Commission on Sunday showed the governing alliance—comprising the National Party, along with ACT and New Zealand First—clearing the 66-seat threshold required for a majority by a single seat. However, approximately 14 percent of the total vote remains uncounted, consisting of roughly 400,000 special votes that include overseas ballots and votes cast outside individual electorates. Al Jazeera reported that these special votes have historically favored left-leaning parties and will not be officially released until November 27.
Until the final tally is certified, the existing administration will continue to operate as a caretaker government. Neither Prime Minister Christopher Luxon nor Labour Party and Opposition Leader Chris Hipkins claimed absolute victory during their election-night speeches, reflecting an election that left the country’s government hanging in the balance. BBC coverage noted an unusually gloomy mood among the electorate, describing voters as flat and tired after a year marked by economic headwinds and tight job markets.
New Zealand has voted, and it looks like an MMP special. On the current count, National is once again the largest party in parliament, but with around 300,000 special votes still to be counted, it’s too close to call. To every New Zealander who gave National their vote, to our… pic.twitter.com/AUjkg8lzKe
Combined, the National Party and the Labour Party captured just 58 percent of the party vote—the lowest combined major party vote in the country’s history. Labour secured 29.3 percent of the popular vote while National took 29.2 percent, marking a steep drop from National’s 38.1 percent share during the 2023 election that brought the conservative coalition to power.
As the major parties dropped in popularity, smaller and transformationist minor parties surged. The right-wing libertarian ACT party and the nationalist New Zealand First party increased their vote shares to 10.9 percent and 9.8 percent respectively. Meanwhile, CNN reported that the centrist, tax-reform-focused Opportunity Party, led by 38-year-old Qiulae Wong, made history by crossing the 5 percent threshold with nearly 6 percent of the vote. This projected seven-seat haul could position the newcomer party as a crucial kingmaker if the preliminary coalition majority dissolves during the special vote count.
Prime Minister Luxon previously ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, but campaign chair Simeon Brown indicated on Sunday that the party was not ruling out future talks if necessary. Labour leader Hipkins emphasized that the next parliament will require compromise and cross-party cooperation to find common ground before parliament is constitutionally required to sit by early January.
| Political Entity / Bloc | Projected Seats | Preliminary Party Vote Share |
|---|---|---|
| National-Led Coalition (National, ACT, NZ First) | 67 | Not specified (Majority bloc) |
| Centre-Left Bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) | 57 (or 64 with Opportunity) | Labour: 29.3% |
| National Party | 42 | 29.2% |
| ACT New Zealand | 13 | 10.9% |
| New Zealand First | 12 | 9.8% |
| Opportunity Party | 7 | 5.96% |
The final outcome rests entirely on the processing of the remaining ballots, which are scheduled for release on November 27. With historical precedent showing that special votes can alter seat allocations—such as in 2017 and 2023 when special votes cost the National Party two seats—New Zealand remains in a fragile political balance while waiting for final confirmation.
The ABC has a live blog on the New Zealand election – read along here: https://t.co/BzLlGDaEAW
More on New Zealand
For those Australians who were *not* glued to the ABC NZ election live blog (a slightly strangle life choice, but that's OK) here's a summary of where things sit. National in a stronger position to cobble together a government but there's a way to go yet https://t.co/xjxQtnWEpw
