Out of Omicron, what’s next for this year?
Date 22 Jan 2022 time 17:45
open expert opinion Out of Omicron, will there be a new strain of Covid-19?
CNN has released its expert opinion on the direction of the Covid-19 outbreak this year, with most saying we “may” see the end, emphasizing “maybe.”
Tom Frieden, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), former President Barack Obama, said: “I think if we’re on the right track, 2022 will be the year that Covid-19 doesn’t have an influence on our lives. We are very much.”
What will the next stage of the epidemic be and when will it arrive is what Stanford Medicine epidemiologist and infectious disease expert Yvonne Maldonado is trying to find out.
Maldonado said What experts agree on is that “We don’t know for sure.”
We have disease models and lessons from past pandemics. However, the way simple omikron species emerged makes it difficult to predict events.
“None of us expected Omikron to happen,” Maldonado said, “but there are clues. But we don’t think it will happen the way it happens.”
Even so, infectious disease experts have hope given the situation in South Africa.
“South Africa is like canaries in the mines. (Miners will bring canaries into the mine to use as gas detectors that are harmful to humans. Because these birds are sensitive to the toxin) because they can detect omikron first,” Maldonado said.
South African scientists first found Omikron in November, and then the number of infections has skyrocketed and dropped. same as in the UK And that’s what scientists expected to happen everywhere.
John Swartzberg Infectious Diseases and Vaccines Specialist at Berkeley College of Public Health at the University of California “It is expected that in the short term, in the next 6 weeks It will still be quite heavy, around mid-February we will see things get better.”
And if this wave fades quickly Many experts think that there will be “Quiet time”
Swartzberg believes that the month Mar. Throughout the spring or until the summer is the same as last year is The number of infected people continues to decline. “There will be a positive sign. Then we can do anything. In life, I think May or June will be better. I am quite optimistic.”
Part of Swartzberg’s optimism comes from the fact that citizens will be more immune. Both the number of people who received the complete vaccine and the booster needle both those who were infected during the Omikron outbreak
“Immune levels in our populations are much higher than Omicron outbreak levels, which would not only help combat omikron and delta if it continues to spread. But it will also help cope with new species,” said Swartzberg. “How much you can help depends on the medication.”
That’s because the corona virus will never go away.
“I expect other versions Russ’s will be back,” Maldonado said. “This is a situation that creates uncertainty about what will happen next.”
The next species may be as prone to infestation as or even greater than the omikron. and may make the patient more severe or have no symptoms at all
“It’s not clear what’s going to happen next,” said George Rutherford. An epidemiologist at the University of California in San Francisco revealed that and said that eventually the virus will mutate. As is the case with alpha and beta strains. Or it could be a huge leap forward like Delta and Omikron. “So what will happen next? can’t tell”
Take, for example, H1N1 influenza, the new virus that caused one of the deadliest pandemics in history in 1918, infecting about a third of the world’s population and killing about 50 million.
And finally, that epidemic was over. But the virus is still with us to this day.
“It is the ancestor of all the H1N1 viruses we encounter every year,” Maldonado said. “Since then, it has mutated many times. but all from the same species So it is possible for viruses to do the same.”
Swartzberg said that The US averages 35,000 deaths from the flu each year, “and we continue to live our lives. I don’t think it will ever go back to the way it was.”
Maldonado said that That’s a better-than-expected situation. and said that if you want to be like the flu The world must focus on those vulnerable to severe disease by making sure they are vaccinated. and access to monoclonal antibodies and antiviral drugs.
As for the well-matched situation, it’s not bad. There are not enough antiviral or monoconol drugs to treat the sick. or vaccine manufacturers are unable to produce vaccines that use specific strains in time. The worst situation is The germs evade protection from vaccines and medicines. Maldonado said there was little chance of that happening.
While Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said: “I can’t numerically say how likely it is. But we have to be prepared to deal with it.”
Panagis Galiussatos, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins Medicine, said we already knew how to stop the severe symptoms of Covid-19: vaccines, masks. and infection detection
Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP