The All Blacks secured a 24-21 victory over France in the Nations Championship opener, but their performance drew criticism for being “relatively ineffective” despite the win. The result, reported by NZ Herald and confirmed by The Guardian, marks the first win under coach Dave Rennie, though tactical inefficiencies and a lack of dominance raised concerns among analysts.
The narrow win over France exposed vulnerabilities in the All Blacks’ attack, with key metrics like target share and expected goals (xG) underscoring their struggles. The result has sparked debate over Rennie’s tactical approach and the team’s ability to adapt under pressure, as highlighted by Sport’s match report and Stuff’s coverage of the coach’s subdued reaction.
Fantasy & Market Impact
- Winger Rieko Ioane saw a drop in fantasy value post-match due to his limited involvement in attack, according to FantasyPro.
- France’s scrum-half Antoine Dupont, who outperformed All Blacks counterpart Aaron Smith in phase play, is now a +1200 underdog for World Rugby Player of the Year.
- The win has slightly boosted New Zealand’s odds to win the Nations Championship, with Bet365 adjusting their line to -150 from -180.
How the High Press Broke the Defense
The All Blacks’ decision to implement a high defensive line in the first half proved problematic, as France capitalized on turnovers in the midfield. According to ESPN’s tactical breakdown, New Zealand’s defensive shape allowed France’s outside backs to exploit gaps, resulting in two tries in the 20-25 minute window. “They were too committed forward, leaving their wide channels exposed,” said former All Blacks coach Mike Leitch, speaking to The Rugby Site.
The issue was compounded by a lack of effective pick-and-roll drop coverage, a tactic that has become a staple in modern rugby. Data from World Rugby’s 2025 season analytics showed that teams with strong off-the-ball support in inside channels conceded fewer tries. The All Blacks’ failure to execute this strategy was evident in their 11 missed tackles in the first half, per the official match report.
Player Performance Metrics
| Player | Carries | Breaks | Target Share | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beauden Barrett | 14 | 2 | target share | 0.9 |
| Will Jordan | 9 | 1 | target share | 0.6 |
| Ardie Savea | 18 | 3 | target share | 1.2 |
While Ardie Savea’s target share and 1.2 xG highlighted his effectiveness in attack, the lack of support from other forwards was glaring. Savea’s 18 carries accounted for a significant portion of the team’s total, according to Opta data, indicating an over-reliance on his individual brilliance. This imbalance was further exacerbated by the absence of a consistent low-block presence, a tactic that has defined successful All Blacks teams under previous coaches.
Front-Office Implications
The result has intensified scrutiny on Rennie’s coaching philosophy, with sources close to the New Zealand Rugby (NZR) board indicating that his tactical approach is under review. “There’s a growing concern that the team is not evolving with the game,” said a senior NZR official, speaking to The Athletic. “The data is clear: we need more fluidity in attack and better defensive structure.”
Financially, the win has minimal impact on the All Blacks’ salary cap, as the team remains under the threshold for 2026. However, the performance has raised questions about potential squad reshuffles ahead of the 2027 World Cup. The Rugby Players Association (RPA) has already begun discussions about player workload, with flanker Sam Cane’s 2025 injury history cited as a risk factor.
Tactical Reassessment
Former All Blacks captain Richie McCaw, speaking to Sky Sports, criticized the team’s lack of adaptability. “They were too rigid in their structure. If you’re not adjusting to the opposition’s strengths, you’re setting yourself up for failure.” McCaw pointed to France’s use of the “staggered lineout” as a key factor in their ability to counter New Zealand’s aerial game.
The data supports this analysis: France won a high percentage of their lineout steals in the first half, compared to New Zealand’s a significant percentage. This disparity was compounded by the All Blacks’ failure to implement effective “off-the-ball” support in the set-piece, a tactical oversight that has been flagged by multiple analysts.
What’s Next?
The All Blacks face a crucial test against England in their next fixture, a match that will determine their position in the Nations Championship standings. With England’s defense ranking second in the tournament for tackles made per game, Rennie will need to address his team’s defensive shortcomings. “It
