The future of diplomacy is under pressure as great power competition returns, raising the specter of a world governed by the “law of the stronger” rather than the “strength of law,” according to a recent broadcast on Germany’s Phoenix television channel. The assessment, delivered on February 24, 2026, comes as established international norms face increasing challenges.
The broadcast, titled “Die Zukunft der Diplomatie · We agree to disagree,” highlighted a shift in global dynamics, suggesting a potential reversion to a more ruthless international order. The program questioned the efficacy of traditional diplomatic tools in an era defined by assertive nation-states.
This assessment echoes historical concerns about the dominance of power politics in international relations. A 2024 article published by Monde diplomatique traced the evolution of international law, noting that even early conceptions of the law of nations, beginning with the writings of Francisco de Vitoria in the 1530s, were often justifications for conquest and domination. Vitoria, examining the Spanish colonization of the Americas, sought to legitimize Spanish actions not on universal principles, but on the perceived failure of indigenous populations to adhere to a supposed “right to communicate” – encompassing travel, trade, and the propagation of Christianity. The article details how this justification was used to rationalize armed intervention and land confiscation.
The return of great power competition is not merely a theoretical concern. A recent post from the Transatlantic Defense and Security Institute argues that reducing dependencies on major powers, strengthening military and economic sovereignty, and securing political cohesion are essential to countering the law of the stronger. The institute’s analysis suggests a growing recognition of the need for independent capabilities and unified action to resist coercion.
The historical precedent of the “law of the stronger” is stark. As noted by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, the concept was embraced by proponents of Social Darwinism and manifested in the brutality of colonialism and National Socialism. The misuse of “natural selection” to justify oppression underscores the dangers inherent in prioritizing power over principle.
The Phoenix broadcast did not detail specific diplomatic strategies for navigating this evolving landscape, but posed the question of what ambassadors and diplomats can realistically achieve in the current climate. As of March 22, 2026, no public response has been issued by major diplomatic bodies outlining a revised approach to international negotiations. A follow-up discussion on the future of diplomacy is scheduled for phoenix plus on February 24, 2028.
