Home » Russia and the referendum and annexation .. How will the West respond?

Russia and the referendum and annexation .. How will the West respond?

by archyde
Vyghansk, Vydonetsk, Kherson, and BazarovyaOn Friday, referendums to join Russia began, and will end on Tuesday.

Regions include:

A large part of eastern Ukraine, a region known as Donbass, where large concentrations of people of Russian origin and Russian-speaking Ukrainians live.
Donbass now consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, which Putin recognized as independent states before the invasion on February 24. The front line passes through Donetsk.
Referendums were held in 2014 in the two regions on secession from Ukraine.
Kherson region controlled by Russia.
Zaporizhia, controlled by Russia.
In total, Russia will include at least 90,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
Russia, which recognized the borders of post-Soviet Ukraine in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, annexed Crimea in 2014. By adding the territories in the four regions besides Crimea, Russia would have annexed at least a fifth of Ukraine’s territory.

poll timing

"We are facing a state of escalation and mutual escalation"This is how Basil Al-Hajj, a researcher in Russian-European relations, described the current situation between Kyiv and Moscow, that the referendum move in the four regions of eastern and southern Ukraine is not a surprise.

The researcher explained that the current timing of the referendum and the insistence on its implementation by Russian President Vladimir Putin It has many connotations.

• It comes within the framework of mutual escalation in the biggest conflict between Moscow and the West
• Resolving the result of the major confrontation economically, in the energy sector between Moscow and Western countries, automatically means resolving the situation in Ukraine for the winning party, and here the scales are in favor of Moscow.
• The referendum was preceded by the announcement of partial mobilization, which, according to all military analyzes, will not have its forces ready until after several months
The Russian military mobilization is a preparation for the West and Washington’s reaction to the referendum, meaning that it is a warning to the collective West
• Waving nuclear power if Russian territory is targeted, and this is a prelude to the result of the referendum

What lands will be annexed?

Russia plans to annex areas representing about 15 percent of Ukraine that its forces control as well as areas that its forces do not control about 3 percent of Ukraine — including the front lines where Ukrainian soldiers are still fighting, such as the Donetsk region.

How quickly can formal annexation happen?

Soon. After the referendums, the leaders of the regions supported by Russia could ask to join Russia. Putin may quickly agree to this, and legislation to this effect will be passed in Moscow quickly as well.

After Russian forces took control of Crimea on February 27, 2014, a referendum on joining Russia was held on March 16. The Crimean peninsula is inhabited by a majority of Russian descent and was moved to Ukraine during the Soviet era.

Crimean leaders announced that the vote supported by 97 percent secession from Ukraine and joining Russia. Russia formally annexed Crimea on March 21, less than a month after it invaded.

Western reaction

In that corner, the Russian researcher in the history of international relations, Solonov Plavrev, says that the Western reaction will not go beyond the limits because it has already crossed all red lines through military support and the imposition of sanctions that are the strongest in history towards Moscow.

And he expected in an interview for the site "Sky News Arabia"Western and American steps as follows:

• Continuing to provide support, especially for medium-range weapons, expecting to facilitate the entry of long-range missiles as well
• Blowing up any attempts to sit at the negotiating table or reach a political solution and a ceasefire
• Toughening sanctions on the financial sector, especially taking a step towards unifying the price of Russian gas in an attempt to stop any gains for Moscow through energy
• Disable the export of grain and try to attribute it to Moscow and promote the attempt "starving the world"
• Provoking Russia by targeting the areas that witnessed the referendum, and at that point it would be a great danger

Ukraine’s reaction

Analysts expected Kyiv to escalate the escalation in the areas that witnessed Referendum To annex Russia, and here Dr. Basil Al-Hajj says, if the Russian lands are attacked after the referendum in the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia and the Donbas regions, which according to Russian law will be Russian lands, means that we are on the threshold of a new escalation phase in various fields.
He explained that it is difficult to predict new scenarios that the West may follow, except for the continuation of support for Ukraine at all levels, with a political and media escalation, in addition to new sanctions against Russia.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the world to condemn what he called "Fake polls"And he continued: "The world will react quite justly to fake referendums – they will be categorically condemned".

The Kremlin had confirmed that if a positive decision was taken in the referendums, actions by parliament and Russian President Vladimir Putin would follow.

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Voting in referendums on joining Russia in 4 Ukrainian regions continues, despite Kyiv’s continued bombing of these regions. areas were forVyghansk, Vydonetsk, Kherson, and BazarovyaOn Friday, referendums to join Russia began, and will end on Tuesday.

Regions include:

A large part of eastern Ukraine, a region known as Donbass, where large concentrations of people of Russian origin and Russian-speaking Ukrainians live.
Donbass now consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, which Putin recognized as independent states before the invasion on February 24. The front line passes through Donetsk.
Referendums were held in 2014 in the two regions on secession from Ukraine.
Kherson region controlled by Russia.
Zaporizhia, controlled by Russia.
In total, Russia will include at least 90,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
Russia, which recognized the borders of post-Soviet Ukraine in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, annexed Crimea in 2014. By adding the territories in the four regions besides Crimea, Russia would have annexed at least a fifth of Ukraine’s territory.

poll timing

“We are facing a state of escalation and mutual escalation,” Basil Al-Hajj, a researcher in Russian-European relations, described the current situation between Kyiv and Moscow, that the referendum move in four regions of eastern and southern Ukraine is not a surprise.

The researcher explained that the current timing of the referendum and the insistence on its implementation by Russian President Vladimir Putin It has many connotations.

• It comes within the framework of mutual escalation in the biggest conflict between Moscow and the West
• Resolving the result of the major confrontation economically, in the energy sector between Moscow and Western countries, automatically means resolving the situation in Ukraine for the winning party, and here the scales are in favor of Moscow.
• The referendum was preceded by the announcement of partial mobilization, which, according to all military analyzes, will not have its forces ready until after several months
The Russian military mobilization is a preparation for the West and Washington’s reaction to the referendum, meaning that it is a warning to the collective West
• Waving nuclear power if Russian territory is targeted, and this is a prelude to the result of the referendum

What lands will be annexed?

Russia plans to annex areas representing about 15 percent of Ukraine that its forces control as well as areas that its forces do not control about 3 percent of Ukraine — including the front lines where Ukrainian soldiers are still fighting, such as the Donetsk region.

How quickly can formal annexation happen?

Soon. After the referendums, the leaders of the regions supported by Russia could ask to join Russia. Putin may quickly agree to this, and legislation to this effect will be passed in Moscow quickly as well.

After Russian forces took control of Crimea on February 27, 2014, a referendum on joining Russia was held on March 16. The Crimean peninsula is inhabited by a majority of Russian descent and was moved to Ukraine during the Soviet era.

Crimean leaders announced that the vote supported by 97 percent secession from Ukraine and joining Russia. Russia formally annexed Crimea on March 21, less than a month after it invaded.

Western reaction

In that corner, the Russian researcher in the history of international relations, Solonov Plavrev, says that the Western reaction will not go beyond the limits because it has already crossed all red lines through military support and the imposition of sanctions that are the strongest in history towards Moscow.

In an interview with “Sky News Arabia”, he expected Western and American steps as follows:

• Continuing to provide support, especially for medium-range weapons, expecting to facilitate the entry of long-range missiles as well
• Blowing up any attempts to sit at the negotiating table or reach a political solution and a ceasefire
• Toughening sanctions on the financial sector, especially taking a step towards unifying the price of Russian gas in an attempt to stop any gains for Moscow through energy
• Disrupting the export of grain and trying to attribute it to Moscow and promoting an attempt to “starve the world
• Provoking Russia by targeting the areas that witnessed the referendum, and at that point it would be a great danger

Ukraine’s reaction

Analysts expected Kyiv to escalate in the areas that witnessed Referendum To annex Russia, and here Dr. Basil Al-Hajj says, if the Russian lands are attacked after the referendum in the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia and the Donbas regions, which according to Russian law will be Russian lands, means that we are on the threshold of a new escalation phase in various fields.
He explained that it is difficult to predict new scenarios that the West may follow, except for the continuation of support for Ukraine at all levels, with a political and media escalation, in addition to new sanctions against Russia.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the world to condemn what he called “fake referendums”, and continued, “The world will react absolutely justly to the fake referendums – they will be categorically condemned.”

The Kremlin had confirmed that if a positive decision was taken in the referendums, actions by parliament and Russian President Vladimir Putin would follow.

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