On April 13, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that the extension of the grain deal for exporting grain from southern Ukraine’s ports after May 18 is unlikely unless five significant issues in the agreement reached in the summer of 2022 are resolved. The Ministry emphasized that the 60-day extension given on March 14 only serves commercial exports of Ukraine from its southern ports for the benefit of Western countries. The conditions presented by the Ministry include the integration of the Russian Agricultural Bank into the SWIFT settlement system, the resumption of agricultural machinery, spare parts, and service deliveries to Russia hit by Western restrictions, lifting the prohibitions on insurance and reinsurance of Russian grain ships and their access to ports, resuming the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, and unlocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies engaged in food and fertilizer production and transportation.
Russia does not see an opportunity to extend the grain deal for the export of grain from the ports of southern Ukraine after May 18, unless the “five systemic problems” of the agreement concluded in the summer of 2022 are resolved. This was announced on April 13 by the Russian Foreign Ministry. According to the position of the department, the agreements extended on March 14 for 60 days serve exclusively commercial exports of Ukraine from its southern ports in the interests of Western countries.
Among the conditions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the connection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT settlement system was announced; the resumption of deliveries to Russia of agricultural machinery, spare parts and service, which fell under Western sanctions; abolition of restrictions on insurance and reinsurance of Russian grain ships and removal of the ban on their access to ports; restoration of the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline (the UN promised to open it in December 2022); unblocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies associated with the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.
In conclusion, it seems that the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine may be coming to an end unless certain conditions are met. The Russian Foreign Ministry has made it clear that the agreement will not be extended without addressing the five systemic problems. It remains to be seen how these issues will be resolved and what impact they will have on the Ukrainian grain industry. As always, we will continue to monitor this situation and provide updates as they become available.