Raw material shortages and supply chains
Close affair
Toyota Electric
© press-inform – the press office
Sales figures and shares of electric cars are increasing, but while more and more customers are developing an electric taste, incomplete supply chains and shortages of raw materials will probably continue to cause major problems for car manufacturers for a long time to come. Tesla stays on top of the Chinese stepping on the gas.
The analysts from Global Data predict that the US manufacturer Tesla and the Chinese brands will maintain their dominance in the EV sector, even if large corporations such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, Ford or General Motors are now backing the electric horse with high pressure, as are Daimler or bmw. All corporations could look back on large increases in 2021. “In the short term, lithium shortages will hardly affect the big players like Tesla and Toyota as their supply chains are more vertically integrated. In addition, the lithium supply problems will not necessarily lead to a drastic increase in the cost of electric cars in the short term,” explains Amrit Dhami, Analyst at Global Data, “Looking further ahead, Tesla and Toyota are betting on different horses for the future of electric car batteries, with Toyota betting on solid-state batteries. The first solid-state battery electric cars will be on the roads in 2025, but they will be much more expensive than conventional lithium-ion electric cars and will therefore only reach the mass market later.”
Analysts at Global Data assume that Tesla will retain its leading role in the electric vehicle segment, especially in Western countries, for the time being. From a global perspective, however, China will dominate the entire electrical landscape. In the past two years, more and more manufacturers have decided to gradually switch to completely electric cars. “Many automakers have now committed to producing electric cars, but Tesla’s brand power will be problematic for BMW, Mercedes and others in the premium space,” said Amrit Dhami, “if a consumer is willing to shell out the money for a more expensive electric car, they will rather opt for the face of the market – Tesla.” Elon Musk’s company was able to increase its vehicle deliveries by more than 80 percent in 2021. As Tesla is currently expanding its international production, it is expected that the number of vehicles delivered in 2022 can also reach a record level and break the million mark for the first time. Tesla could have around 1.5 million new vehicles this year.
Volkswagen intends to sell more than a million electric vehicles by 2025. The situation is similar at Toyota, which, unlike the competition, does not rely exclusively on electric drives. The Japanese are expected to increase global sales of fully electric vehicles to 3.5 million units by 2030. Europe should be one of the central markets and from 2035 there should only be zero-emission vehicles. “To meet the challenges, we must reduce CO2 emissions as much as possible and as quickly as possible,” explains Akio Toyoda, Toyota President and CEO, “We live in a diversified world and at a time when the The future is difficult to predict, so it’s difficult to find a one-size-fits-all solution, which is why Toyota wants to offer customers around the world as many options as possible.”
An increase to over 1.5 million vehicles at Tesla would correspond to an increase of 64.9 percent compared to the previous year. In particular, the new plants in Brandenburg and Texas, which are about to open, are likely to have an impact on production and sales for the first time in 2022. However, unlike most of its competitors, the company continues to develop its own semiconductor chips. Especially in the current Covid situation, this is a significant advantage over other competing car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors, Ford, Hyundai and Stellantis. BMW was also able to significantly increase its electric deliveries and became an electric millionaire, at least in terms of the total volume. “With the delivery of the one millionth electrified vehicle, we have reached a milestone in our transformation. And we already have our sights set on the next one: in just two years we want to break the two million mark,” said Pieter Nota, BMW Board Member for Sales. Thanks to our continuously growing product portfolio, we are setting ourselves ambitious sales targets, especially for all-electric vehicles: In 2022, we want to double sales here compared to this year. By 2025, around two million all-electric vehicles should already be in customer hands.”
As recently as 2020, almost 50 percent of all electric vehicles worldwide were on the roads in China – more than in the United States and Europe combined. By the end of the decade, China’s electric fleet is expected to account for 60 percent of the world’s total, despite corresponding global increases. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping extended both the sales tax exemption for electric vehicles and the subsidies for domestically built electric vehicles until the end of 2022. China’s gigantic domestic market, comparatively easy access to key raw materials, and benign government policies mean that it will dominate the electric car landscape over the long term and won’t be as badly affected by the lithium shortage. The national subsidies ensured that the top-of-the-class Tesla in China lost market share to the local manufacturer BYD. While new car production of electric models in 2021 was just five percent worldwide, the proportion is expected to more than double to eleven percent by the middle of the decade, which would mean ten million units. However, China wants to phase out its subsidies for NEVs (electric cars and plug-in hybrids) by the end of the year. However, an electrical quota of 20 percent for the individual brands remains.
“The shift towards EVs has been largely driven by environmental, social and governance legislative changes, but demand is also driving the momentum. This year’s energy crisis means people no longer want to be as dependent on global supply chains, which is accelerating the move away from petrol and diesel. Consumers are also becoming more environmentally conscious – especially Generation Z,” explains Global Data Analyst Amrit Dhami.