Global climate change poses a direct threat to South Korea’s national security, as accelerating sea-level rises and extreme weather conditions jeopardize low-lying coastal military installations and guard posts, according to assessments reviewed by military authorities.
Here is why that matters right now. Military readiness is no longer just about hardware and personnel; it now hinges on geographic resilience against planetary-scale shifts. As average global temperatures climb and coastal waters encroach, defense planners are forced to rethink where and how strategic assets are anchored.
The 2030 Horizon and High-Emission Vulnerabilities
When applying a high-emission scenario known as SSP5-8.5, military reviews indicate that critical naval and air facilities could face flooding threats starting as early as 2030, just four years from now. These findings were detailed during a national defense meteorology symposium held toward the end of last year, prompting defense planners to scale up risk assessments across the peninsula.
Under this high-emission model, projected impacts by 2030 are severe across several key regions. In Pohang—home to the Marine Corps 1st Division and the Naval Aviation Command—roughly 240 to 300 square kilometers are projected to fall into flood and storm-surge impact zones. That footprint covers nearly a quarter of Pohang’s total area of 1,130 square kilometers.
Meanwhile, Jeju Island, which hosts the Navy’s Mobile Fleet Flotilla, faces projected inundation risks across 180 to 240 square kilometers. Core hubs like the Jinhae Naval Base Command and the Mokpo-based 3rd Fleet Command also face localized flooding risks spanning roughly 60 to 120 square kilometers. Further north, Gunsan—hosting the Air Force’s 38th Fighter Wing alongside the U.S. 7th Air Force’s 8th Fighter Wing—faces comparable exposure projections looking ahead to 2080.
To be clear, these projections do not point to permanent, submerged territory akin to science fiction. Instead, they model worst-case pathways driven by unchecked global fossil fuel consumption.
Data Realities: How Fast Are Korean Coasts Rising?
Even if worst-case scenarios remain variable, the underlying trend is undeniable. Data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency shows that South Korea’s coastal sea levels rose at an average annual rate of 3.03 millimeters over the 34-year span from 1989 to 2022.
The agency relies on projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Under a low-emission scenario labeled SSP1-2.6, sea levels are projected to climb 20 centimeters by 2050 and 47 centimeters by 2100. Shift to the high-emission pathway, and those figures jump to 25 centimeters by 2050 and 82 centimeters by the end of the century. That 2100 high-emission projection sits roughly 9 centimeters higher than predictions derived from the older IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, confirming that the pace of maritime encroachment is accelerating.
Here is a breakdown of how the IPCC scenarios compare across the century:
| Emissions Scenario | Projected Rise by 2050 | Projected Rise by 2100 |
|---|---|---|
| Low Emission (SSP1-2.6) | 20 cm | 47 cm |
| High Emission (SSP5-8.5) | 25 cm | 82 cm |
Protecting Troops Amid Extreme Heat and Shifting Weather
Sea-level rise is only half the equation. The average temperature across the Korean Peninsula is projected to rise by 1.6 to 1.8 degrees Celsius in the near term between 2021 and 2040, according to a joint climate assessment published by the Ministry of Environment and the Korea Meteorological Administration. That trajectory breaches the critical 1.5-degree threshold established by international scientists to avert runaway climate hazards.
This temperature spike translates directly into operational hazards on the ground.
In response, the South Korean military has formally integrated climate variability into its core strategic variables. Defense authorities are utilizing national climate models to evaluate how aerial operations are impacted by shifting atmospheric patterns. Comprehensive studies evaluating coastal base flood risks are underway, with final investigative findings anticipated by the end of this year.
Protecting the nation now requires safeguarding the very ground beneath its garrisons. As weather extremes challenge personnel health and rising tides test coastal perimeters, South Korea’s defense apparatus is rewriting its playbook to face an adversary that respects no borders.
