Powered by a four-day holiday haul projected at $22M (and maybe $23M) for Sony and Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, the domestic summer box office is barreling toward an all-time record of $4.76B, according to data from Rentrak reported over the weekend.
Box Office Nears a Historic Summer Record
The domestic marketplace stood at $4.643 billion for the period spanning May 1 through September 3, leaving the industry just $112.2 million shy of eclipsing the previous benchmark set in 2013 at $4.756 billion. Sources reported that it looks like we are going to get there with the Friday-Monday Labor Day frame ringing up over $118M, and if we hit the forecast that studios are seeing for the weekend, we’ll be at $4.76B. Rentrak had a footnote on its summer note yesterday saying that there’s a chance that summer 2026 could finish $8 million–$23 million below the 2013 record of $4.756 billion. Analysts point out that this summer was longer than 2013’s record: 130 days versus 123 days. It’s not often that Labor Day becomes this nail-biting at the box office, as studios often use the frame as a dumping ground, rarely attempting to lure moviegoers out. The only time really they appealed to the masses was 2021 when Disney booked Destin Daniel Cretton’s Marvel title Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings in an effort to get moviegoers back into cinemas post Covid, that title still owning the best opening for the holiday at $94.6M.
Spider-Man Leads the Holiday Charge
With an eye at $22M (and maybe $23M) over 4-days, Sony/Marvel Studio’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day is one of the best holdovers for the holiday frame after The Sixth Sense ($29.2M), Crazy Rich Asians ($28.5M), and Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($22.9M). As we’ve already written, the movie is chasing history, and ultimately in the next few weeks, or even days, will step on 2015’s Star Wars: Force Awakens ($936.6M) to become the highest grossing movie of all-time at the domestic B.O.
Strong Holdovers and Newcomer Performances
Also, let’s not ignore the holdover power of Universal’s The Odyssey which by the end of this weekend after its eighth sesh of $16.4M over 4-days, will stand at $588.1M, Universal’s second-highest grossing movie at the domestic box office after Jurassic World ($653.4M) and ahead of Super Mario Bros Movie ($574.1M). The rest of the newcomers are quite light, though Paramount’s Mark Wahlberg-Yahya Abdul-Mateen II Civil rights action thriller By Any Means is coming in higher than the $6M spotted with $8.5M over 4-days and a B+ CinemaScore. Lionsgate Grindstone’s Fall 2: Deadpoint is looking at $2.7M over 4-days in 12th place with a B- while A24’s Onslaught isn’t igniting hipsters with $2.3M over 4-days and a C CinemaScore.
Specialty Screenings and Specialty Film Realities
Busting into the top 10 is Sony Pictures/Crunchyroll’s re-release of the 1988 Akira which made $1.215 million on Friday from 787 locations for what’s looking $3.5M over 4-days, $2.8M over 3-days. For all the pom poms about the comeback of theatrical, smaller films have a very hard time, bad reviews or good reviews. To have something akin to A24’s specialty win, The Invite, ($25.6M, 96% critical Rotten Tomatoes score, 89% audience), a distributor needs to invest and push. However, the reality of the situation for many who aren’t opting for an awards season or even a genre audience pull is that they’re often using theatrical as a means of marketing to get a film into the next home window. It’s the primary financial model for many distributors, even the big studios.
That said, one of the exceptions is Roadside Attractions and Saban’s Buddy which is having an exceptional hold and speaking to its under 25 audience (at a huge 44% per PostTrak). Buddy could wind up as the distributor’s second or third highest grossing movie ever behind I Can Only Imagine ($83.4M domestic) and ahead of either Judy ($24.3M) or Peanut Butter Falcon ($20.4M). This is all with a P&A spend under $5M for the Sundance acquisition. The 3-day on Buddy is $5.9M (+9%) while the 4-day is looking like $7.4M in 7th for a running total by EOD Monday of $15.98M at 1,771 theaters. The 18-34 crowd here alone is driving 73% of business. Pic is drawing mostly men at 52% and it has a 55% definite recommend.
