2024-02-27 04:00:50
An important factor: How will the seniors vote? Image: KEYSTONE
The vote on the 13th AHV pension is likely to be close. That’s why both sides fight until the end for every vote, because in the end the majority could decide.
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Now it’s definitely about the sausage. In a few days it will be clear whether the retirees will receive a 13th AHV pension. The supporters’ once huge lead has melted away in the latest surveys by SRG and Tamedia. This is the norm with popular initiatives, which is why things are looking pitch black for the Young Liberals’ pension initiative.
However, with the union federation’s initiative for the 13th AHV pension, everything still seems possible. In both surveys the yes share is more than 50 percent. This means that the majority of estates could be the deciding factor, and in this case there is great uncertainty. We provide an overview of various scenarios and venture a forecast.
The data
At Tamedia the 13th AHV pension is 59 percent and at SRG it is 53 percent. This difference is “not exceptional,” emphasized the two survey institutes Lewas and GFS Bern to the “Sonntagszeitung”. In fact, it decreases when undecideds and the statistical margin of error are taken into account.
Participants in the prediction market run by Zurich political scientist Oliver Strijbis, with whom Watson worked last year during the parliamentary and Federal Council elections, also tend to assume this. What is interesting is that the yes trend has actually increased after the last surveys. More than 60 percent assume this.
This seems counterintuitive, but there is concrete evidence pointing in this direction. The AHVplus initiative, which had an almost identical thrust, achieved 40 percent yes in the last SRG survey eight years ago. That corresponded exactly to the share that she achieved ten days later in the vote. That makes the 53 percent for the 13th pension plausible.
The more estates
Even if the yes percentage remains, the vote will be a tough one. Because the necessary additional stands are likely to be tight. A case like the Alpine Initiative 30 years ago, in which there was a narrow majority of the people and a clear majority of the classes, is an absolute exception. The rule of thumb for a safe increase in stands is 55 percent yes.
The starting position for the 13th AHV pension is not clear. It also achieves considerable approval ratings in some rural and conservative cantons. The GFS Bern institute, which carries out the SRG surveys, does not want to be tied down to a forecast. Glarus, Graubünden, Lucerne and Schaffhausen are considered possible “tipping cantons”.
Predictions for the majority at cantonal level for the 13th pension #AVS #MONKEYin decreasing order of probability of YES
yes : GE, NE, VD, JU, TI, BS
uncertain: FR, VS, BE, ZH, BL
not : SH, GR, SO, GL, AG, SG, LU, TG, ZG, AR, UR, OW, AI, SZ, NW#ML #CHvote #Abst24 pic.twitter.com/DYruBVu67c— Sébastien Perseguers (@sperseguers) February 22, 2024
The Freiburg physicist and entrepreneur Sébastien Perseguers, who has developed an AI forecast model, takes a clearer position. After the publication of the last surveys, he assumes that the notorious naysayer cantons in German-speaking Switzerland will also vote unanimously against the 13th AHV pension in this case and bring it down.
The voter turnout
Given the tight conditions, mobilization is likely to be the deciding factor. The broad commitment among the population will “play a decisive role in the last days before the vote,” the trade union federation stated in a statement. And there is actually an above-average voter turnout.
Initial information from Bern or Basel-Stadt suggests this, although in the latter case the replacement election for the seat of Federal Councilor Beat Jans, in which the Greens are attacking the SP, also plays a role. A high level of participation in urban areas usually benefits left-wing models, but it is hardly enough for a majority of cantons.
The seniors
In the final phase of the voting campaign, a particular focus is on pensioners. Their approval of the AHV supplement was high for a long time, but in the last survey they registered “uncertainty among older voters,” said political scientist Lukas Golder from GFS Bern to “Switzerland at the Weekend”.
The call from opponents of the initiative to think about younger people when casting their votes does not seem to be ineffective. They resort to carrot and stick. The presidents of the bourgeois parties from GLP to SVP committed themselves in a letter “to a rapid increase in AHV pensions for poorer pensioners”.
On the other side is the open letter from five former Federal Councilors written in a dark tone. It led to a violent shitstorm, so much so that Adolf Ogi, who was involved, spoke of a “loss of respect”. It may have been overlooked that the letter touched a nerve with conservative pensioners.
There is evidence in this direction. The SVP base, which was in favor of the 13th AHV pension for a long time, has recently tipped into the no camp. Campaigner Daniel Graf said on
Prognosis
It’s difficult to get a clear picture ahead of next Sunday. The popular initiative for a 13th AHV pension has considerable potential in both directions. Nevertheless, a prediction is daring: like the corporate responsibility initiative, it is likely to achieve a yes share of more than 50 percent and still fail due to the majority of states.
Nobody could be satisfied with such an outcome, also because the proposal does not contain any federalist component. It would reignite the debate about the “veto power” of the small, rural German-speaking Swiss cantons. The left would probably again call for the abolition of the majority of estates. But that’s what it takes – more estates.
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The 13th AHV explained in a second
Video: watson
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