“Krung Thai” points out that the baht is the highest in 10 months after the US CPI slows down as expected. Boost market confidence, hoping the Fed will cut interest rates to just 0.25% in the February meeting. dollar depreciation Follow the baht near the support level of 33 baht per dollar. look at frame today 33.00-33.30 baht per dollar
“Krung Thai” points out that the baht is the highest in 10 months after the US CPI slows down as expected. Boost market confidence, hoping the Fed will cut interest rates to just 0.25% in the February meeting. dollar depreciation Follow the baht near the support level of 33 baht per dollar. look at frame today 33.00-33.30 baht per dollar
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market Krung Thai Bank revealed that the baht opened this morning (13 Jan) at 33.10 baht per dollar.
“appreciation” highest in 10 months since March 2022 And appreciated from the previous day’s close at 33.36 baht per dollar. Look at the baht frame today. Expected to be at 33.00-33.30 baht per dollar.
After yesterday night (12 Jan.), US CPI inflation rate slowed down as expected. has encouraged market players to believe that The Fed may cut the rate hike to +0.25% at its February meeting.
Recently, market players have given a 95% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by only +0.25% and also predicts that The Fed may raise interest rates to 5.00% before cutting them to 4.50% later this year. This view of market players has supported the US financial market. The Nasdaq tech stock index rose 0.64% while the S&P 500 closed up 0.34%.
Regarding the trend of the baht, we see that the appreciation of the baht in the past is from the main factors depreciation of the dollar Including gold profit taking transaction flow
for today in market conditions open to risk We estimate that The baht has a chance to appreciate some more. There is a chance that the baht may appreciate to test the important support zone of 33 baht per dollar. (After the baht appreciated below the level of 33.25 baht per dollar, our previous estimation)
However, we believe that the baht may not strengthen so strongly that it falls below key support levels as we begin to see more foreign players taking profit on short USDTHB positions. Exporters may not be in a hurry to sell dollars. Because most of them may wait for the moment when the baht weakens, for example Weakened near the zone of 33.50 baht per dollar.
The recent high volatility of the baht reflects the need for more hedging tools. make us recommend Entrepreneurs should use a more diversified exchange rate hedging strategy. Especially the use of options, which will increase the efficiency of hedging during the period of heavy market volatility.
On the European stock market, the STOXX600 index continued to rise +0.63% following the rise in tech stocks and growth-style stocks (ASML +1.1%, Adyen +1.1%) after US CPI inflation slowed following expected, leading market players to believe that the Fed will slow down its rate hike. In addition, European stocks were also supported by gains in energy stocks (BP +1.4%, TotalEnergies +1.1%) following the price increase. The latest crude hit $78.3 per barrel. for WTI crude and $83.8 per barrel. for Brent Crude Oil
in the bond market Perspectives of market players who expect more Fed slows down rate hike As a result, the US 10-year bond yield continued to decline to 3.45%. Long-term government bonds, in particular, will be an attractive asset amid the global economic slowdown and the tightening monetary policy of major central banks may be nearing its end. Came moderately since the beginning of this year makes us look Investors should wait for the long-term bond yield to increase somewhat in order to gradually accumulate. Rather than chasing the purchase price In the bond yield decline
in the currency market The dollar weakened against the major currencies. According to the view of market players who believe that the Fed will slow down the rate hike. After recent inflation has slowed down, recently the dollar index (DXY) has dropped to 102.3 points, while other major currencies have appreciated, for example, the euro (EUR) has appreciated to 1.086. dollar per euro The Japanese Yen (JPY) also strengthened to 129 yen per dollar. In addition, the decline in both the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield helped gold prices (COMEX Gold Contract for July delivery. Wed) can rise to test the resistance zone around $ 1,900 per ounce. as we previously assessed. And consider the gold profit-taking flow to be another factor that helps the baht appreciate.
For today, market players will wait to assess the US economic outlook. through the Consumer Confidence Index report Hit the University of Michigan One of the interesting pieces of information is the short-term and long-term inflation forecast report. Expectations), where both short-term and long-term consumer inflation expectations have continued to decline. This may reassure market players in the view that US inflation will actually slow down and will cause the Fed to delay accelerating interest rates.