The dollar today – La Tercera

Downside began the day of this Tuesday for the dollar in its price against the Chilean peso, in a session marked by the publication of information on the services and manufacturing sector in the United States. Trend that deepened with the passing of the hours.

At the close of its most liquid operations, and according to the Chilean Electronic Stock Exchange (Bec), the currency gave up $13.50 and is trading at a selling point of $800. With this, parity chains its third record of losses in the local market, a string in which it adds losses of $25.10. Meanwhile, so far this month, the US bill has depreciated by $50.

Thus, the currency is at its lowest level since April 6, 2022, when the dollar also closed at $800 per unit.

During the day, The operations led the currency to pierce the key barrier of $800, trading at a minimum of $798.05, its lowest level since last April 5, when it closed at $787.70. Meanwhile, the highest point of the transactions located the North American bill at $816.00. Everything, when a total of 3,671 transactions were carried out for more than US$2,119 million.

as noted Ricardo Bustamantehead of trading studies at Capitaria, the deepening of the downward trend “is beneficial considering inflation control, considering that Chile is a country with high imports of goods for daily use, where a lower value of the North American currency supports lower exchange costs for importers, which should be transferred to final consumers, especially in a scenario of weak dynamism in trade”.

Despite the foregoing, Bustamante qualified by pointing out that “the next news that we will receive in the United States regarding economic activity and inflation may be key to determining a more defined trend in the coming days.”

The dollar ignored the poor performance of copper in its spot price. The value of Three-month contracts for the main Chilean export product reversed their fall and now rose 0.09% on the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex), the main commodity futures and options market, and are trading at US$4.26 a pound.

While, futures traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) sank 0.27% up to US$4,234 a pound. The spot price, for its part, fell 0.35% to US$4,222.

For its part, business activity in the United States contracted for the seventh consecutive month in January, although the slowdown moderated both in the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September, reported Reuters.

The S&P Global Composite US Production Index rose to 46.6 in January – readings below 50 indicate contraction in activity – from a final reading of 45.0 in December.

Although this is the highest number in three months, businesses continue to report weak demand and high inflation as a drag on customer spending.

All in all, the records of the manufacturing PMI (46.8) and the services PMI (46.6) were above market forecasts (46.0 and 45.0, respectively).

In this regard, the manager of Income Studies4, Guillermo Arayacommented that “despite the higher-than-expected PMIs, the US 10-year treasury bond rate falls to 3.477%, from 3.523% at yesterday’s close, which puts pressure on the dollar to lowers it”.

“Technically, there is still room for the drop to the relevant $775 and $780 zone, from there I could make a correction,” added the fx corporate sales trader the Vantrust, Juan Gabriel Navarro.

The analyst also points out that the renewals of forwards that the Central Bank carries out daily generates “a selling flow, some days very large”, rising to US$850 million on occasions, “and therefore there is no demand,” he added.

However, Navarro added that three relevant risks persist for the dollar: increased geopolitical noise due to the war in Ukraine; a potential announcement by the Central Bank of wanting to “replenish reserves”, something that it sees as “unlikely at these levels”; and what happens with the rate decision by the Federal Reserve, which could raise the governing rate by 50 bp “or more”, in addition to what happens with the Monetary Policy Rate in the Chilean case.

It should be remembered that during this Wednesday and Thursday, the Board of the issuing institute meets to evaluate the pace of monetary policy, and will communicate its decision at 6:00 p.m. on Thursday.

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