2023-10-17 00:22:02
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (Archyde.com/Dazhi Image)
The Wall Street Journal reported that the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas may spread across the region and also affect the international balance of power. The United States and Europe are diversifying their resources while the war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing, while China and Russia are working together with Palestine to reap the benefits.
The report wrote that the long-term effects of the renewed war in the Middle East are unpredictable, and it first depends on whether Israel can achieve its goal of annihilating Hamas.
Another key question is whether Israel’s diplomatic relations in the region and the international standing of its Western backers can survive the major test of increased civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip and street fighting in densely populated areas.
Hamas raided several Israeli villages and towns on the 7th, killing at least 1,400 people, mostly unarmed civilians. Israel subsequently violently bombed the Gaza corridor controlled by Hamas, killing at least 2,750 Palestinians. The Israeli ground attack was imminent, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza intensified.
The report pointed out that China, Russia and Iran have long wanted to undermine the international system backed by the United States. Now that the United States is distracted by the war in the Middle East, these countries are seizing the opportunity and have their own plans.
Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said that this is part of the reshuffling of the world order. “Once the United States leaves a power vacuum, others will inevitably fill the vacuum.”
After the Israeli-Palestinian conflict resumed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to many countries in the Middle East, and the U.S. military sent two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean to strengthen deterrence. The report said that Washington used this to show that the United States was an indispensable partner for Israel and key Arab countries. The relevant actions received cross-party support and slightly diluted the increasingly strong isolationist sentiment in recent years.
At the same time, pressure on Russia over its failure to fight in Ukraine eased, and Moscow in turn accused Western governments of hypocrisy.
According to Ukraine, tens of thousands of civilians were killed by Russian troops during the months-long siege of Mariupol last year. Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Israel’s siege of Gaza to the situation in his hometown of St. Petersburg that was under siege during World War II, implying that Israel is no different than a Nazi. Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once had a warm relationship, but now they have drawn a clear line, reflecting Russia’s desire to position itself as a vanguard against Western “neo-colonialism.”
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said any conflict that takes the focus away from Ukraine would benefit Russia. The longer the Israeli-Palestinian conflict lasts, the more Russia will be able to strengthen its argument against the Western world and win in terms of tactics and strategies in its war with Ukraine.
It is rare for China to stand on the side of Palestine, and its friendly relations with Israel are on the verge of collapse. When Beijing oppresses the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, it often uses the name of counter-terrorism, but it deliberately avoids using the word “terrorism” when describing Hamas attacks, which greatly disappoints Israel.
When Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed his position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for the first time in Beijing on the 13th, he said that the root of the problem lies in “the historical injustice suffered by the Palestinian people that has not been corrected.”
Many observers believe that China is preparing for a possible future conflict with the United States over Taiwan, and Beijing will benefit from Washington once again being distracted from dealing with Middle East issues.
Antoine Bondaz, a researcher at the French think tank Strategic Research Foundation (FRS), said that China cares about its own interests. For Beijing, the most important thing is Sino-US relations and how China can weaken the strength and image of the United States. China aims to become an alternative to developing countries, projecting a peaceful image and trying to portray the United States as a destabilizing factor.
In March this year, China promoted its influence in the Middle East politics by promoting the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now that the risk of regional war has increased, the United States uses shuttle diplomacy and military deployment to prevent the conflict from expanding, while China maintains a low profile.
Gordon Flake, CEO of the Perth USAsia Center, an Australian think tank, said that China regards market access and investment as its main bargaining chips in the Middle East to control economic power, but it does not yet have hard power locally. Therefore, No one looks to China for solutions to the problem.
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