Russian President Vladimir Putin. Figure: Retrieved from Twitter (file photo)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with its superior military power did not go well, and even the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet “Moscow” was sunk. U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines warned on the 10th that Ukraine has entered a war of attrition mode, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to turn to “more drastic measures” to avoid defeat. After the offensive on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine ended the fighting, it was determined to build a land bridge to the area along the Nestor River.
The Transnistria region, a narrow strip between southwestern Ukraine and the border with neighboring Moldova, is controlled by pro-Russian separatists, but most countries consider it part of Moldova. “We assess that President Putin is prepared to fight a long battle in Ukraine, and he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbas,” Haynes said in testimony before the Senate.
Haynes pointed out that Putin is likely to judge that Russia has more ability and will to survive the difficulties than its opponents, and is making wishful thinking that the United States and the European Union will not be able to withstand the pressure of food shortages, inflation and soaring energy and shrink back . Both Ukraine and Russia believe that they can continue to achieve military progress and advantages, and it is difficult for the two sides to negotiate and compromise in the short term.
Haynes mentioned that the Ukrainian-Russian war has entered a stage of attrition, and the gap between Putin’s ambitions and the Russian military’s conventional military capabilities also means that in the next few months, the war situation will become more unpredictable and extremely A quick upgrade is possible. It also makes Putin’s actions more unpredictable, and it is increasingly likely that he will “jump over the wall” and take more drastic measures, including imposing martial law at home, redeploying industrial production, or when he believes he will lose to Ukraine, to prevent war. Continue to delay and quickly escalate the level of military operations.
Haynes finally warned that the most likely flashpoint of the Ukrainian-Russian war in the next few weeks should be Russia’s intimidation of Western aid to Ukraine, retaliation for Western sanctions, or a counterattack against Western attempts to overthrow Putin’s regime. But unless Russia faces an “existential threat”, Putin is unlikely to order the use of nuclear weapons.