The Taiwan Institute of Economics and Economics released a survey on the business climate in October yesterday. The operating climate test points of the manufacturing, service, and construction industries all showed a downward trend in October. The manufacturing industry has declined for ten consecutive months, setting a record low since May 2020. . Zhang Jianyi, president of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, warned that “the worst is yet to come” for the overall economic situation. At least until the second quarter of 2023, the uncertainty is really still very high.
Zhang Jianyi said that major forecasting agencies predict that the U.S. economic growth next year will be close to zero. He believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike will only turn a big hawk into a small hawk, and will not turn dove for the time being; Coupled with the European debt crisis, most of the major forecasting agencies are not optimistic about the European economy next year, and even believe that there may be a recession.
However, Zhang Jianyi believes that what the world cares most about is whether China’s dynamic zeroing policy can be relaxed, because this has a great impact on the smoothness of the global supply chain. Taiwan’s economic growth next year will be driven by domestic demand, but Taiwan’s economic growth will not decline next year, but will slow down.
Sun Ming-te, director of the Prosperity Forecasting Center of the Taiwan Institute of Economics, pointed out that the operating climate test point for the manufacturing industry in October only fell by 0.43, and the decline has been narrowed. As manufacturers work hard to reduce inventory, domestic consumption is also recovering, and it is expected to be pinned on the second place next year. Will Ji Chunyan come?
Sun Ming-teh said that regarding Taiwan’s economic growth next year, the Taiwan Institute of Economics and Economics has set the tone as “low growth” and “medium inflation”, but we must pay attention to the development of the zero-clearing policy in mainland China, because once the zero-clearing policy is relaxed, retaliatory consumption may occur , which in turn causes prices in mainland China to rise, and we must be careful of mainland China’s counterattack.
According to the Taiwan Institute of Economics, the test point for the manufacturing business climate in October 2022 is 84.20, which is 0.43 points lower than the revised 84.63 last month, and the decline has slowed down compared to the previous one. , but still showing a downward trend for ten consecutive months, a new low since May 2020.
The business climate test point for the service industry in October 2022 was 91.09, a decrease of 3.65 from the previous month’s revision, showing a downward trend for three consecutive months. The operating climate test point for the construction industry in October 2022 was 85.10, a drop of 5.24 from September, showing a downward trend for three consecutive months.
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