2023-10-21 11:02:48
Week 7 got off to a thrilling start on Thursday night, as the Jacksonville Jaguars outlasted the New Orleans Saints in a 31-24 track meet. The game featured several exciting moments, and some standout fantasy performances from the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk and Alvin Kamara.
Fantasy enthusiasts looking ahead to the rest of the Week 7 slate will be searching for similar performances while hoping to avoid pricey busts in daily fantasy sports (DFS) games.
Unfortunately, with one game down and six teams—the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans—on bye, managers will be working with a relatively shallow player pool.
We’ll dive into the recent results and individual matchups, and identify some top DFS values for Week 7, along with a few expensive options who shouldn’t be trusted.
Get the latest DFS values at DraftKings.
Packers QB Jordan Love Cooper Neill/Getty Images
Target: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers, $5,800
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love has not had an easy go of it lately. He’s thrown five interceptions over his last two games with only one passing touchdown.
However, Love has flashed fantasy upside this season, with six passing touchdowns over his first two weeks, and he does provide some dual-threat ability. Coming out of the bye, the Packers will have had two weeks to prepare for a very underwhelming Denver Broncos defense.
Denver did a respectable job against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, but Kansas City is a familiar foe. For the season, the Broncos have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Consider Love a solid DFS play for managers looking to load up at the skill positions.
Fade: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, $6,400
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been far more dependable this season, but his ceiling will be limited against a stout Baltimore Ravens defense. No team has allowed fewer net yards per passing attempt than Baltimore, and no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to QBs.
The Lions may be a little more pass-heavy than usual with David Montgomery (ribs) out, but managers shouldn’t expect a huge day from Goff.
Win or lose, he could have a performance to his Week 1 outing against the Chiefs. Goff had a decent stat line—253 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions—but he probably didn’t win many DFS games.
Managers seeking a signal-caller in Goff’s price range should look elsewhere this week.
Browns RB Jerome Ford Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Target: Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns, $5,100
The Cleveland Browns’ ground game has been inconsistent since Nick Chubb was lost to a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. However, the Browns still want to run the ball, and they found room against the vaunted San Francisco 49ers defense on Sunday.
Jerome Ford took a while to get going, but after some big second-half runs, he finished with a reasonable stat line—two catches and 91 scrimmage yards. That’s not bad, considering San Francisco has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Ford should see a faster start against the Indianapolis Colts, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to his position. Kareem Hunt will likely steal some touches, but Ford remains Cleveland’s starter.
Target Ford as a value flex option and expect similar yardage numbers as last week’s with a touchdown possibly in the mix.
Fade: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers, $8,600
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is awesome, and he’s always going to provide a solid point-per-reception (PPR ) floor. However, he’s vastly overvalued, given the matchup.
The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, and they’ve stifled several good running backs along the way. They held Javonte Williams to just 52 scrimmage yards in last Thursday’s win over the Broncos.
Ekeler struggled to get going against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night, finishing with just 27 yards on 14 carries. He did catch four passes for 35 yards—which is where his PPR floor comes into play—but his overall numbers were underwhelming.
Against a Kansas City defense quickly becoming one of the league’s best, Ekeler is just too pricey to trust.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice David Berding/Getty Images
Target: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs, $4,700
Chiefs rookie receiver Rashee Rice is another budget option to consider for the flex this week. While the recent addition of former Kansas City wideout Mecole Hardman could eventually impact Rice’s target share, it shouldn’t be a significant issue this week.
Rice has established himself as Kansas City’s No. 2 target after Travis Kelce. He ranks second on the team in receptions (21), receiving yards (245) and touchdowns (two). He’s caught four passes in each of his last two games and is coming off a 72-yard performance.
This week, Rice could have even better numbers. The Chiefs host the rival Los Angeles Chargers, who have struggled to cover opposing receivers in a big way.
No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing WRs than Los Angeles this season.
Fade: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts, $6,600
Normally, Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is a dependable DFS start because of his PPR floor. He’s caught eight or more passes in four of his six outings this season and is coming off a nine-reception, 109-yard game.
The problem is that Indianapolis will be up against the Browns defense, which likely means Pittman will face a heavy dose of cornerback Denzel Ward.
Ward has surrendered 14 receptions and 163 receiving yards all season in coverage, according to Pro Football Reference.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew II is likely to face heavy pressure from the Cleveland defensive front, which means even if Pittman snags a handful of catches, his yardage ceiling is low.
The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers in 2023.
Packers TE Luke Musgrave Cooper Neill/Getty Images
Target: Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers, $3,300
Packers rookie tight end Luke Musgrave has been a low-end DFS play for most of this season, when healthy. He exited the game against Detroit with a concussion, but he’s averaged just over four receptions and 39 yards in his other games.
Musgrave could see a jump in production this week against a Broncos defense that has struggled against opposing tight ends. Denver surrendered nine receptions and 124 yards to Travis Kelce in Week 6—which, to be fair, is not an uncommon stat line for Kelce—and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
While Kelce can always be considered an outlier, the Broncos gave up four catches and 67 yards to Tyler Conklin in Week 5, and seven catches, 85 yards and two touchdowns to Cole Kmet in Week 4.
Fade: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots, $4,100
New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry is still being valued as a mid-level DFS starter, but he should be ignored this week.
Opposing defenses have begun game planning to slow Henry, who is one of New England’s few dependable pass-catchers. Henry has also been battling an ankle injury and has just one catch for seven yards over the past two weeks.
The Buffalo Bills defense is hampered by its own injuries, but Henry is likely in store for another lackluster outing, assuming he’s even healthy enough to play a meaningful role.
Buffalo has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
*Fantasy scoring information from FantasyPros.
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