Tropical Storm Moke is tracking across the open waters of the Central Pacific, threatening the Hawaiian Islands with heavy rainfall and gusty squalls just one week after Hurricane Lala carved a path of destruction across the region. According to AccuWeather forecasts, Moke is projected to pass south of the island chain this weekend into early next week, bringing renewed flood risks to saturated terrain and vulnerable infrastructure.
A Wider System Taking a Southerly Track
While Hurricane Lala struck a direct blow earlier in August, Tropical Storm Moke is taking a distinct southward trajectory. Even though the center of the storm is expected to remain offshore, the system’s expansive wind field means impacts will still reach land.
“Moke is tracking farther south than Lala did,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva noted in reports covering the storm’s progression. “However, Moke is a larger storm with showers and thunderstorms currently extending hundreds of miles from the center of low pressure.”
As of Saturday night HST, tracking data placed the storm roughly 315 miles southeast of Hilo, moving westward at a steady clip of 14 mph. Meteorologists emphasize that Moke is unlikely to reach full hurricane intensity before its latitude intersects with the Big Island. Nevertheless, its sheer size ensures that outer rain bands will deliver significant weather hazards.
Assessing the Rainfall and Flash Flood Potential on the Big Island
The primary threat accompanying Tropical Storm Moke is excessive rainfall, which poses an immediate hazard due to the state of the local landscape. From August 14 through August 17, Hilo recorded nearly 15 inches of rain from Hurricane Lala—amounting to roughly 1.5 times its historical average for the entire month of August. Other parts of the Big Island absorbed between 2 and 3 feet of water, pushing maximum observed totals past 43 inches.
Because the ground remains heavily saturated and hillsides unstable, forecasters warn that it will not take much additional precipitation to trigger flash floods, mudslides, and washouts. Current models project a general 4 to 8 inches of rain across the Big Island, with isolated higher totals ranging from 8 to 12 inches. AccuWeather’s Local StormMax points toward a potential extreme total of 24 inches in the most persistent downpours, while Hilo specifically could see another 2 to 6 inches.
The remainder of the Hawaiian Island chain is expected to receive a more modest 1 to 2 inches of rain.
Mitigating factors may limit rainfall in certain sectors. High pressure positioned to the northeast of Hawaii is strengthening as a result of atmospheric interactions with the remnants of Lala to the west. This dynamic is expected to sweep dry air southwestward, potentially curbing excessive rainfall across the northern portions of the Big Island and neighboring islands.
Wind Squalls and Coastal Hazards
Because the center of Moke will pass south of the island chain, sustained hurricane-force winds are not anticipated. Instead, the highest wind threat will manifest in intense spiral bands and localized squalls.
Forecasters expect wind gusts across higher terrain on the Big Island to reach between 40 and 60 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax wind gust ceiling of 85 mph. Beyond atmospheric precipitation, large swells propagating outward from the storm’s core will generate hazardous surf conditions along exposed southern and eastern shores.
As recovery efforts from Hurricane Lala continue across pocketed power outages and debris-clogged drainage networks, local authorities and residents remain on high alert. The upcoming days will test the resilience of infrastructure still recovering from the historic deluge of mid-August.
How is your community preparing for these back-to-back tropical systems? Share your thoughts and local updates in the comments below.
