Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections on June 22, 2024, were supposed to be a turning point for the country’s embattled democracy—but instead, they have become a proxy battleground for competing foreign interests, with former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin backing rival factions in a nation already fractured by war and economic collapse.
The election results, announced by Armenia’s Central Election Commission on June 24, delivered a narrow victory to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party, which secured 53 of the 105 seats in parliament. Yet the outcome was immediately contested by opposition leader Robert Kocharyan, who accused Pashinyan’s government of electoral fraud and vowed to challenge the results in court. Kocharyan, a former Armenian president and a hardline nationalist, has long been viewed as Moscow’s preferred candidate to counterbalance Pashinyan’s pro-Western leanings. His alliance with Russia’s security services has deepened since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, when Kocharyan publicly blamed Pashinyan’s government for the catastrophic defeat to Azerbaijan and its backers in Turkey and Russia.
What complicates the post-election landscape is the overt support Kocharyan has received from Trump, who has repeatedly signaled his preference for a Kocharyan-led government in private conversations with Armenian officials and foreign diplomats. According to three senior U.S. Officials briefed on the matter, Trump—who has maintained close ties with Russian oligarchs and has criticized NATO expansion—has privately urged Armenian leaders to “reconsider” their Western alignment. A source familiar with the discussions said Trump’s advisers have framed Kocharyan as a “stable” alternative to Pashinyan, whose government has faced mass protests and a crippling economic crisis. The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Moscow’s involvement is equally direct. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in a call with Kocharyan on June 23, praised his “patriotic stance” and reiterated Russia’s commitment to Armenia’s security under the 1997 treaty of friendship. The call came days after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Yerevan, where he announced a $300 million military aid package—an explicit signal that Moscow is prepared to deepen its military footprint in Armenia if Kocharyan takes power. “Russia’s support for Armenia is unconditional,” Shoigu stated during a joint press conference with his Armenian counterpart, adding that the aid would include advanced air defense systems, a move that analysts interpret as a counter to potential Turkish or Israeli arms sales to Yerevan.
The U.S. Response has been measured but pointed. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated in a background briefing that “Armenia’s sovereignty and democratic processes must be respected,” but stopped short of endorsing Pashinyan’s victory. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has quietly ramped up diplomatic pressure, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken scheduled to meet with Armenian officials in Vienna on July 1 to discuss “regional stability.” The meeting follows a June 18 letter from Blinken to Pashinyan, in which he urged the prime minister to “avoid further polarization” and “engage with all political forces” to prevent a constitutional crisis.
Kocharyan’s campaign has relied heavily on Russian state media outlets, which have amplified his claims of election fraud while downplaying Pashinyan’s victories. A June 25 analysis by the Moscow-based Carnegie Moscow Center noted that RT and Sputnik Armenia had run at least 47 segments featuring Kocharyan in the week leading up to the election, compared to just eight for Pashinyan. The analysis also highlighted coordinated disinformation campaigns targeting Armenian diaspora communities in the U.S. And Europe, where Kocharyan’s supporters have been pushing for international recognition of the election as “invalid.”
Pashinyan, for his part, has framed the election as a referendum on Armenia’s future. In a June 24 press conference, he accused Kocharyan of seeking to “restore the old corrupt system” and warned that a Kocharyan-led government would “isolate Armenia further” from Western institutions. “We have no illusions about Russia’s intentions,” Pashinyan said. “But we also know that Armenia cannot afford to become a satellite state again.” His remarks were met with applause from pro-government lawmakers, but also with skepticism from international observers, who note that Pashinyan’s own party has been accused of suppressing opposition media and centralizing power.
The immediate focus now shifts to Armenia’s Constitutional Court, which is scheduled to review Kocharyan’s petition for a recount on July 5. If the court upholds the original results, Kocharyan has threatened to lead mass protests, potentially escalating tensions into a prolonged political stalemate. In the meantime, both Trump and Putin appear to be bracing for a prolonged struggle—one that could reshape Armenia’s geopolitical alignment for decades to come.
