The United States conducted strikes in Iran on March 2nd, a move increasingly viewed by analysts as part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to apply pressure on nations aligned with China, including Venezuela and Cuba.
The strikes, and the subsequent rhetoric directed toward Havana, are seen as a demonstration of a national security doctrine articulated in documents released during President Trump’s second term, which prioritizes defending the Western Hemisphere alongside efforts to deter Chinese influence. This doctrine marks a shift in focus, according to experts, aiming to limit Beijing’s access to key resources and strategic partnerships in the Americas and the Middle East.
A central concern for China is energy security. Venezuela and Iran, previously significant suppliers of petroleum to China, together accounted for roughly one-third of China’s total oil imports. However, both countries have faced increasing challenges. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has been undergoing reconstruction by American companies, effectively shifting control of its vast reserves – estimated at 17% of the world’s total – to the United States. President Trump publicly offered to sell oil to China on January 9th, though at a price likely higher than previously secured from Iran and Venezuela.
The situation in Venezuela has deteriorated for China in recent years. In January 2026, Venezuela effectively ceded control of its oil resources to the U.S. China and Venezuela had elevated their relationship to an “all-weather strategic partnership” in 2023, signifying long-term cooperation across multiple sectors, including energy. Prior to this, Chinese policy banks had loaned more to Venezuela than any other Latin American country, with at least $10 billion in outstanding loans. Venezuela as well represents the largest purchaser of Chinese military equipment in Latin America, and China maintains access to two satellite tracking stations within the country.
Simultaneously, the potential for a change in leadership in Iran presents another challenge for Beijing. Should Ayatollah Ali Khamenei be removed from power, China risks losing its preferential access to Iranian oil. Iran holds one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves and, despite sanctions, remains a top-ten global producer and an active member of OPEC+. Much of Iran’s oil has been purchased by China, representing a substantial portion of China’s seaborne oil imports.
Disruption of Iranian oil supplies may lead China to increase its reliance on Russia as an alternative energy source, according to recent analysis. The U.S. Strikes on Iran have created a dilemma for China, forcing a reassessment of its energy strategy and potentially shifting its geopolitical alignments.
The Hudson Institute has analyzed China’s repositioning of its policy toward both Iran and Venezuela, noting how recent geopolitical developments are influencing Beijing’s strategic economic and political interests. The U.S. National Security Strategy, released recently, outlines a response to China’s global strategy, detailing methods to counter Beijing’s influence.
