2023-12-16 03:56:16
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Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in seven swing states by an average of five per cent among registered voters.
A Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll has the former president beating Mr Biden 47 to 42 per cent across the seven states as a whole. Mr Trump leads by three per cent in Arizona, by seven points in Georgia, by four points in Michigan, by five points in Nevada, by 11 points in North Carolina, by a single point in Pennsylvania, and by six points in Wisconsin.
This comes as Mr Trump is also pulling ahead in Iowa ahead of the state’s caucuses on 15 January.
With just a month, the former president’s support passed 50 per cent for the first time during the 2024 campaign, according to a poll by the Des Moines RegisterNBC News, and Mediacom, in which 51 per cent of the respondents said Mr Trump was their top choice.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at 19 per cent in the survey while former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 16 per cent.
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Gretchen Whitmer releases slate of endorsements as shadow 2028 race takes shape
Speculation about the next presidential election cycle kicked into second gear last month when California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who has repeatedly insisted that his name will not be in the running for the 2024 election, appeared onstage for a rare moderated debate with Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor remains a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination, but continues to significantly trail frontrunner Donald Trump in both national and state-level polling.
Mr Newsom’s debate-stage sparring with Mr DeSantis led many to believe that he holds his own national ambitions. Further evidence for that argument can be found in the form of his recent official travel abroad to meet with the leaders of Israel and China.
But the California Democrat is hardly the only one taking very public steps towards securing a national profile among their party. On Tuesday, Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer released a slate of congressional endorsements through her Fight Like Hell PAC for roughly two dozen centre-left House members; the majority were in key presidential battleground states. Just one was from her own home state.
The list includes Hillary Scholten of Michigan, Susan Wild and Chris DeLuzio of Pennsylvania, Jahanna Hayes of Connecticut, Emilia Sykes of Ohio, Steven Horsford of Nevada, Angie Craig of Minnesota and Lauren Underwood of Illinois.
John Bowden15 December 2023 03:00
Biden says world leaders keep telling him ‘You can’t let Trump win’
“There’s not an international event that I’ve attended – not one – where the rest of the world doesn’t come up to me – leaders, no matter what country they’re from – and say, ‘You can’t let him win. You can’t let him win,” Mr Biden reportedly told the audience.
Io Dodds15 December 2023 01:00
What the Hunter Biden polling shows
In September, a poll by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that about half of all Americans have little or no confidence that the Department of Justice is handling the probe into the conduct of the 53-year-old in a fair and nonpartisan manner and a third said at the time that they’re highly concerned that the president may be guilty of wrongdoing in connection to his son’s business dealings, despite that so far, no concrete evidence has come to the surface showing that this is the case.
It’s important to note that the divide between people with differing political views is massive, showing that voters’ opinions of the president and his son are strongly correlated to their partisan positions. Among Republicans, 66 per cent said they’re very or extremely concerned about the president having committed wrongdoing in connection to his son’s business – the same is true for only seven per cent of Democrats, the poll revealed.
Again, in the face of no evidence supporting the notion, 81 per cent of Republicans said they think the president took part in his son’s business, as did 39 per cent of Democrats and 59 per cent of independents.
Similarly, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS in late August found that 61 per cent of Americans think that the president had some involvement in his son’s business dealings, while 42 per cent think he committed illegal actions, with 18 per cent believing his actions were unethical but not illegal. Meanwhile, the same poll found that 38 per cent believed he had no involvement, with a single per cent saying he was involved but committed no wrongdoing.
A majority – 55 to 44 per cent – said he acted inappropriately versus inappropriately.
The CNN poll also had stark political divides – less than a third of Democrats said they think the president was involved compared to 76 per cent of Republicans and 64 per cent of independents.
Gustaf Kilander14 December 2023 23:00
How will Hunter Biden’s legal woes affect Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign?
“There is no evidence to support the allegations that my father was financially involved in my business because it did not happen,” he said as he defied a Republican-led subpoena to testify behind closed doors.
Gustaf Kilander14 December 2023 21:21
Trump leads Biden in seven swing states
Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in seven swing states by an average of five per cent among registered voters.
A Morning Consult/Bloomberg News poll has the former president beating Mr Biden 47 to 42 per cent across the seven states as a whole. Mr Trump leads by three per cent in Arizona, by seven points in Georgia, by four points in Michigan, by five points in Nevada, by 11 points in North Carolina, by a single point in Pennsylvania, and by six points in Wisconsin.
Gustaf Kilander14 December 2023 20:57
Trump is second choice for 13 per cent of likely caucusgoers
Despite earning support from many donors including the powerful Koch network, Ms Haley’s numbers have remained static in Iowa at 16 per cent.
Mr Trump is also the second choice for 13 per cent of likely caucusgoers, while 30 per cent of them say Mr DeSantis is their second choice and 17 per cent say that Ms Haley is their second choice.
The winner of the Iowa Caucus rarely wins the Republican presidential nomination. Indeed, Mr Trump came in second in 2016 when he lost to Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who more directly appealed to white evangelicals. The last Republican to win the Hawkeye State and then the presidential nomination was former president George W Bush in 2000.
In addition, 49 per cent of likely caucusgoers said their mind is made up, while 70 per cent of Mr Trump’s supporters say their mind is already made up. In addition, 73 per cent of Republicans say that they believe Mr Trump can beat President Joe Biden in a rematch.
Eric Garcia11 December 2023 21:00
Biden’s bad numbers with Democrats
Among Democrats and other voters leaning towards the party, about 40 per cent say that Mr Biden’s economic policies haven’t improved the economy. Similarly, about four in 10 say the US is doing the right amount to help Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza. About a third say the US is helping too much and about a quarter say the aid is not enough. Among voters under the age of 35 in both Michigan and Georgia, almost half say the US is doing too much. That’s about 20 points higher than among those over the age of 50.
Among voters in both states, most say that he doesn’t have the attributes they seek in a president regarding policy, ability to grasp their problems, or his stamina and sharpness.
While Mr Trump gets better marks on those issues, Mr Biden is ahead when it comes to temperament, with about half of respondents in each state saying he doesn’t have the temperament they want in a president, while 57 per cent in Michigan and 58 per cent in Georgia say the same about Mr Trump.
On policy, only nine per cent of voters under 45 say Mr Biden represents an ideal candidate. On being able to understand their problems, only 11 per cent of these voters in Georgia and nine per cent in Michigan say they believe Mr Biden does.
Younger voters break in Mr Trump’s favour by 50 to 40 per cent in Georgia, and by 49 to 38 per cent in Michigan.
Mr Biden has the support of 90 per cent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters over the age of 45 in both states, but just 78 per cent of those leaning towards the Democrats under the age of 45 in Michigan and 80 per cent in Georgia.
In Georgia, most approve of the charges brought against Mr Trump in the state for election interference, with 47 per cent stating that if the allegations against the former president are accurate, they would disqualify him from holding office. Fourteen per cent say the charges would cast doubt on his fitness to serve if revealed to be true. In Michigan, 46 per cent say the election interference charges against Mr Trump are disqualifying if found to be true, and another 14 per cent say it would cast doubt on his fitness for office.
But among the voters who are likely to vote in a Republican primary, 64 per cent in Michigan, and 70 per cent in Georgia say the charges are irrelevant. In both swing states, 27 per cent of those supporting Mr Trump against Mr Biden say that a conviction for Mr Trump would cast doubt on his fitness for office.
Gustaf Kilander11 December 2023 20:00
Trump leads Biden in swing states amid terrible ratings for incumbent
In Michigan, 10 per cent said they don’t support either candidate. Mr Trump’s lead is increased by voters who say they didn’t vote in 2020 – this group breaks for the former president by 26 points in Georgia and by 40 in Michigan. Respondents who say they voted in 2020 reported having broken for Mr Biden in the last election but they now lean in Mr Trump’s direction in both swing states. Mr Biden is currently retaining fewer of his 2020 supporters compared to Mr Trump.
While Mr Trump faces the challenge of getting politically disengaged people to turn up to the polls, Mr Biden is confronted with having to convince those who backed him in the past to do so again, despite their negative views of his leadership.
Thirty-five per cent in Michigan and 39 in Georgia approve of Mr Biden’s job performance and 54 per cent in Georgia and 56 per cent in Michigan say his policies have led to a worse economy.
Gustaf Kilander11 December 2023 18:41
Trump hits new high in Iowa poll weeks before caucuses
Mr Trump also has a wide lead among many of the key groups within Iowa’s electorate, with 51 per cent of white evangelicals supporting him as their first choice; 59 per cent of self-identified Republicans; 63 per cent of first-time caucusgoers; and 66 per cent of white men without a college degree.
Mr Trump also has a wide lead against his nearest competitor Mr DeSantis.
The Florida governor has elected to put all of his efforts in the Hawkeye State as his campaign continues to lag. To date, he has visited all 99 counties, finishing what is called the “Full Grassley,” named for the state’s long-serving Senator Chuck Grassley.
Eric Garcia11 December 2023 18:00
The unplanned rise of the Iowa caucuses
Iowa’s rise in political importance was unplanned — the process used to be dominated by political insiders and there was little opportunity for regular members to have any influence, as The New York Times has noted.
That began to change in 1968, with both the country as a whole, and specifically the Democratic Party, experiencing significant unrest amid the Vietnam War and the Civil Rights Movement. The battle between party leaders and rank-and-file members came to a head at the Democratic Convention, where protesters clashed with law enforcement.
The uneasiness stretched onto the convention floor, and the party eventually began to rethink the process for how they choose their presidential candidates to include the voices of regular party members.
This led to new rules for the 1972 contest and the four stages in which Iowans now choose their preferred candidates, beginning on the precinct level. The precinct votes are the caucuses where people gather in community centres, sports halls and, in less populated areas, even people’s homes. But there’s also voting taking place on the county, congressional district and state levels.
These new rules, while making the process more accessible and inclusive, also led to further delays as newly formed committees needed updated election materials. However, the state party only had an old machine to make the required copies, leading the state party to decide they needed at least a month between each voting stage to get everything in order in time.
The national convention was set for early July, meaning that the state convention could take place in June, but at the time, the state party was unable to locate a big enough venue, pushing each stage further back, meaning that the process had to begin earlier in the year.
The party chose 24 January as their start date in 1972, making the caucuses the first presidential contest in the nation. While the New Hampshire primaries had been first since the 1950s, Iowa Democrats weren’t in earnest moving their contest earlier to garner national attention, The Times noted. But the national spotlight came to Iowa anyway, beginning with the campaign of South Dakota Senator George McGovern. The longshot candidate was struggling in the polls against the frontrunner, Maine’s Senator Edmund Muskie.
On caucus night, state party officials convened at the party headquarters, where New York Times reporter Johnny Apple was one of about a dozen members of the press in attendance. He was the only one who asked for the results that night, but the party wasn’t ready to release them, having not expected any interest. A party official, Richard Bender, organised a phone tree to get all the results from around the state.
Apple’s article published the following morning revealed Muskie as the winner but that McGovern had received 22 per cent of the delegates, helping bring the caucuses into the national spotlight. Muskie’s less-than-impressive win went against all expectations. Similarly, McGovern’s strong second-place finish was also a surprise.
As with the surprising wins of Barack Obama in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, John Kerry in 2004, George HW Bush in 1980 and Jimmy Carter in 1976, the strong second-place result for McGovern first showed in 1972 that a lesser-known candidate can come from behind and do better than expected thanks to the new rules first used almost 52 years ago, changing the narrative and building momentum for a nascent campaign.
Gustaf Kilander11 December 2023 17:00
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