2023-06-16 04:08:34
Redesign? Status quo ? End clap for Elisabeth Borne? Retention of the Prime Minister? In the absence of a clear signal from the Elysée, the majority is lost in guesswork.
“I put 20 euros on the table.” In front of his plate of red fruits, this minister, whose departure many predict, says he bet with his collaborators “that there would be no reshuffle and that Borne would stay”. One month from the 100 days set by Emmanuel Macron to get out of the pension crisis, and after the last motion of censure on the subject rejected, the majority is in turmoil. “For a week, it’s been accelerating, we’ve been swimming in rumors, it’s classic”, laughs a ministerial adviser who wants to believe that his minister is not threatened. Listening to him, his colleagues are not all calm. “It freaks out between ministerial advisers. Everyone wonders if he has any info.”
“The period is tough. It’s destabilizing.” drop a minister. “We have launched projects and we want to see them succeed”, laments another. The latter would almost anticipate the end of his adventure in government: “Whether it’s with me or without me, it doesn’t really matter. I had a life before, I will have one after.”
At Renaissance, we are also stamping with impatience. “Nothing is moving, it’s hell. Everything is on stand-by”, sighs a kingpin of the presidential party. If all the hypotheses are currently on the table, both for the casting and the calendar, the supporters of the Head of State all agree: it is he who has the cards in hand. And he will decide alone.
“He hates redesigns”
“The truth is that no one knows except the Grand Mufti”confirms one of the relatives of the President of the Republic. “Clever guy who thinks he’s in Macron’s head”bounces another interlocutor of the Head of State. “We are all consulted, not advisers. No one advises him. He questions, draws and then does his mental alchemy on his own”adds an intimate.
Some try to put the rumors at bay… while discussing the subject extensively. “Last year I was sent four WhatsApp lists from the new government and none were the right ones”, says a laying of the majority. The tenant of the Elysée would, according to him, not yet decided the question of the reorganization even if“he is in a period of consultations”. Moreover, he recalls, “the president has a capacity to stretch time, for better or for worse”.
Many of them recall the procrastinator side of Emmanuel Macron when it comes to political casting. “He hates reshuffles. He worked without Minister of the Interior for a fortnight after the departure of Gérard Collomb, he took three weeks to change Jean Castex or even three months to separate from Edouard Philippe”lists a former adviser to power.
“The more it’s talked about in the media, the less the president will want to make a reshuffle. He hasn’t changed since 2017.”
A former government adviserat franceinfo
Result: the assumptions made on the timing of the redesign are very varied. Of “it’s imminent” To “not before the senatorials”, scheduled for the end of September, or even after the Europeans of 2024. Others do not even believe it. “Why do you want a redesign at all costs? I do not believe it ! Then did Borne undeserve? No, she made the pension reform and she is holding the 100 days now”, hammers a majority heavyweight.
“We need an electroshock”
The head of government has supporters within the government. “Changing Prime Minister is to burn a cartridge. Especially since the system is not paralyzed, we passed 20 texts”, boasts a minister stationed at Bercy. And this one to weave praises to the former boss of the RATP: “I find her very strong. She is solid and respected in the collective”. More soberly, another minister assures us that“il there is no Terminal problem”.
Several parliamentarians are going in the same direction. “Nothing justifies today that we change the Prime Minister”, supports a frame.
“No matter how much I look in every corner, I don’t see the 5-legged sheep.”
A framework of the parliamentary majorityat franceinfo
Elisabeth Borne detailed, in an interview with Figaro published on Wednesday, its roadmap for the coming months as if to ward off rumors of a reshuffle. “It’s definitely not in my DNA to give up”she said.
But the head of government also has her detractors, those who believe that she has had her day at Matignon. Among them, we find in particular parliamentarians who have in common to be regular interlocutors of the Head of State. “Borne did the job but it’s getting complicated for her. She’s wrung out. You need an electroshock”pleads one. “I don’t see how one manages to embody something new without changing Prime Minister”, another argues. “I don’t want to be mean to her but one day a Prime Minister has to leave, it’s politics”, rebounds a last elected.
This one spontaneously evokes the episode “Pétain”. Elisabeth Borne had declared, during an interview with Radio J, on May 28, that the National Rally was the“heir” of the head of the Vichy regime. In the Council of Ministers, two days later, Emmanuel Macron had tackled his head of government, ensuring that“we have to fight the far right, but we don’t fight it with the words of the 1990s and moral arguments, it doesn’t work anymore”. Some saw it as a reframing – “if the Elysée didn’t want its words to come out, it didn’t come out” – as when the president had taken up his Prime Minister on her commitment to no longer use 49.3 outside budgetary texts.
The tensions between the two members of the executive are an open secret. “You just have to see her gestures with her. They don’t like each other and the president is subjecting her to a form of Chinese torture”, reports a framework of the majority. Another argument pleading for a departure from Borne: Alexis Kohler, the secretary general of the Elysée, often nicknamed “the second brain of Emmanuel Macron”, “can’t stand it anymore, he wants to change it”slips a very close to the president.
“The reshuffle will not revive the five-year term”
If Elisabeth Borne is thanked, who to replace her? This is where the name fair begins, with an impossible challenge: to find a personality who could guarantee the presidential camp enough votes in the Assembly to have an absolute majority. Once again, all eyes are on Les Républicains. Renaissance must unite the 21st of June executives of the parliamentary majority to discuss a possible alliance with the right. Unsurprisingly, the door was quickly closed by some LR leaders. “The arrangements on a corner of the table, I don’t believe in them at all, tackled the boss of the group at the National Assembly on Thursday on LCIOlivier Marleix. It’s not us who are going to get on the Titanic.”
The majority is no more convinced. “There will be no alliance with the LRs, they no longer exist, let’s stop fantasizing about a coalition agreement”, begs a former adviser to power. Above all, no right-wing personality can claim to take on board enough deputies with her.
“Politically, I don’t think anyone is tipping 40 LR deputies towards us.”
A ministerat France Televisions
It would also be necessary to face the anger of François Bayrou. The boss of the MoDem, historic ally of Emmanuel Macron, firmly opposes any coalition with the right. “I’ve never been bothered by openings. Simply, I’m hostile to a change in the center of gravity”he told franceinfo.
So, in the absence of a coalition, names twirl around, whose credibility remains uncertain. Right now, “the trend”, to use the words of a macronist, revolves around four names: Julien Denormandie, the former Minister of Agriculture, Richard Ferrand, the former President of the National Assembly, Sébastien Lecornu, the Minister of Defense , and Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of the Interior. But none guarantees to solve the problem of the relative majority.
The mystery around Matignon is much thicker than that which hovers over certain other heads. Many ministers of this plethoric government are threatened by a possible reshuffle. In the sights of the parliamentarians of the majority are personalities from civil society who have not been able to impose themselves in public opinion: Pap Ndiaye (National Education), François Braun (Health), Jean-Christophe Combe (Solidarity )… But former local elected officials would also be in the hot seat, such as Christophe Béchu (Ecological Transition) or Olivier Klein (Housing).
“We need visible political ministers, who work with parliamentarians”hammers a Renaissance deputy. “However, I don’t focus on the perspective of the redesign, whether it’s X or Y, it doesn’t change anything for me”, he nuances immediately. An opinion shared by this former adviser: “The reshuffle will not revive the five-year term, Emmanuel Macron thinks only he can.”
1686894353
#time #hypothetical #reshuffle #macronie #swims #rumors